The housing market has never frozen this rapidly. Not even leading to 2007-2008. Blackstone, KKR & Co are limiting redemptions from their funds in an attempt to slow the bleeding. Unless mortgage rates come down quick, it's not looking particularly good for house prices.

UPDATE: Paxos Global receives Wells Notice in connection with stablecoin and connection to Binance $BUSD. **as per previous sources: “Wells Notice’s are beginning to be sent; stablecoins first, then exchanges.”

Today the 2-year note yield declined 61 bps. This was the biggest one-day decline since Oct 1, 1982 (the first discount rate cut following the Sept 1981 all-time peak in yields). To emphasize, today's decline in the 2-year was larger than any one day seen during the 2007 - 2009

Global Container Freight Rates (cost of 40′ Containers) are now lower than they were in January 2020... Jan 17, 2020: $1,581 (pre-covid rate) Sep 10, 2021: $11,109 (peak rate) Mar 17, 2023: $1,463 (-87% from peak) Simply incredible.

The 2-year Treasury yield has moved from 5.05% down to 3.81% over the last 7 trading days, which is the largest 7-day decline in yields (-124 bps) since October 19-28 in 1987 (Black Monday crash was on October 19).

One of the most absurd aspects of the Silicon Valley bank failure is that its CEO was a director of the same body in charge of regulating it: the San Francisco Fed. I'll be introducing a bill to end this conflict of interest by banning big bank CEOs from serving on Fed boards.

The Fed Since 2020: 1. Mar 2020: Inflation won’t be a problem 2. Jan 2021: Inflation is “transitory” 3. Sept 2021: Interest rates won’t rise until 2024 4. Jan 2022: Recession is needed to lower inflation 5. Dec 2022: Disinflation has begun 6. Feb 2023: A “soft landing” is

On March 8, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields hit -1.07%, the most inverted yield curve since September 1981. 7 trading days later the spread narrowed to -0.42%, a 65 bps increase. This was the biggest 7-day steepening we've seen since the 2001 recession.

US Banks borrowed over $150 billion from the Fed's discount window last week, blowing past the previous record during the 2008 financial crisis ($112 billion).

A MAJOR player that understands CDS better than just about anyone. Let me translate, this is my opinion. boaz weinstein can correct/embellish in the reply. ---- A major deal is not using bond spreads, but rather Credit Default Spreads (CDS) for the MAC (Material Adverse Change)

Bear Stearns' collapse in July 2007 triggered a chain of events that ultimately caused the Great Financial Crisis The similarities today after SVB's collapse are striking A thread 🧵

UPDATE: First Republic Bank $FRC desperately trying to find a buyer, with the help of the Fed and Treasury - no takers. **attempting a private placement cap raise; confirming that the $100B they’ve received in the past week wasn’t enough. **Down another -20% pre-market.

1/n This chart comes from the Fed H8 report. It is current through the latest data, March 8 ... two days before Silicon Valley Bank failed. What has been the largest drawdown of deposits since the financial crisis? The weeks BEFORE the bank failures of the last few weeks.

1/4 FED'S BARKIN: THE CASE FOR RAISING RATES THIS WEEK PRETTY CLEAR. --- The market is now going the other way. The terminal rate (blue) (from FF futures) and the actual rate (orange) have converged for the first time this cycle. The market is signaling the Fed is done.

1/3 The bond market "Vix" remains near a record peak. Why?

Anyone who still has crypto on #Binance likes to play with Nitroglycerine on a unicycle at the edge of an active volcano during a magnitude 9 earthquake. Good luck

Signature wouldn’t open an account for Bitfinex or Tether, so they instead used a third party which they owned to open an account at Signature. Looks like more bank fraud and money laundering from Tether. Who knew?

🇺🇸 Recession Since 1929, the S&P 500 max drawdown has tended to occur during the recession itself, and not in the 12 months prior 👉 isabelnet.com/?s=recession h/t BofAML #markets #recession #recessions #sp500 $spx #spx $spy #stocks #stockmarket #equities #investing

Bear market probability is at its highest level. EVER.

🇺🇸 Yield Curve The inversion of the US 10Y-3M yield curve continues to deepen 👉 isabelnet.com/?s=yield h/t (((The Daily Shot))) #markets #yieldcurve #yields #yield #bonds #treasuries #bondmarket #recession #recessions #investing