Joshua
@blah12953
ID: 1863812503035408384
03-12-2024 05:08:33
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Just a few years ago the economics profession completely marginalized Claudia Sahm for speaking out on this matter.
As an AI faculty now surrounded by economists at Booth, the discussion on scaling and the Lucas critique has been entertaining to watch. IMO the spirit of Arpit Gupta's claim feels right but double descent isn't the best analogy. Instead, we should look to language understanding:
My view is that this is underestimating what will happen in one or two years. Ben Golub and Joshua Gans both are heavy users of AI tools for their research, and yet are very cautious in predicting where we will be in January 2027 or 2028. The same arguments in Joshua Gans post