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Analytic

@analytic_trader

The numbers tell the story.
Numbers - Process - Clarity. Not financial advice.
Applied statistical methods for gaining clarity into the financial markets.

ID: 773996317211234305

linkhttps://discord.gg/JjGF6ApJjQ calendar_today08-09-2016 21:27:56

3,3K Tweet

669 Followers

607 Following

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Adaptive Risk-Optimized Portfolio Model: An Adaptive Beta Portfolio Model may be the best for monetizing long momentum trends in bull markets while earning income and protecting against some tail risk. Sharpe Ratio = 1.78 Adaptive Beta Portfolio: 1) Macro Thematic - High

Adaptive Risk-Optimized Portfolio Model:

An Adaptive Beta Portfolio Model may be the best for monetizing long momentum trends in bull markets while earning income and protecting against some tail risk.     

Sharpe Ratio = 1.78

Adaptive Beta Portfolio:
1) Macro Thematic - High
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Market Metrics Update: 7-11-25 SPX (S&P 500) Overview The SPX exhibits a generally positive market condition, supported by robust rally indicators, though tempered by moderate liquidity and mixed contextual factors. Specifically: Market Condition and Context: The overall

Market Metrics Update: 7-11-25 

SPX (S&P 500) Overview
The SPX exhibits a generally positive market condition, supported by robust rally indicators, though tempered by moderate liquidity and mixed contextual factors. Specifically:

Market Condition and Context: The overall
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This is why risk mitigation using adaptive dynamic position sizing (USD weighted Beta + a Beta risk adjustment factor) is better than trying to switch directions between long and short market regimes. #Risk #Mitigation #Portfolio #Beta #market #SPX

This is why risk mitigation using adaptive dynamic position sizing (USD weighted Beta + a Beta risk adjustment factor) is better than trying to switch directions between long and short market regimes. 

#Risk #Mitigation #Portfolio #Beta #market #SPX
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Monthly OP-EX -> Gamma Expiration -> Charm/Vanna Conditional Path-Dependent Flows -> Estimate MAX DD -> MAX DD Recovery Time -> SPX Beta Risk Adjustment Factor #Options #Gamma #Charm #Vanna #Flows #Drawdown #SPX #Beta #Portfolio

Monthly OP-EX  -> Gamma Expiration -> Charm/Vanna Conditional Path-Dependent Flows -> Estimate MAX DD  -> MAX DD Recovery Time -> SPX Beta Risk Adjustment Factor 

#Options #Gamma #Charm #Vanna #Flows #Drawdown #SPX #Beta #Portfolio
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Market Metrics Update: 7-18-25 Summary: - Markets showed resilience last week. - Long positions strengthened amid rally signals. - Cycle remained early-stage with neutral context. - Liquidity and drift bias improved slightly. - Volatility stayed stable overall. - Bottom

Market Metrics Update: 7-18-25

Summary: 

- Markets showed resilience last week.
- Long positions strengthened amid rally signals.
- Cycle remained early-stage with neutral context. 
- Liquidity and drift bias improved slightly. 
- Volatility stayed stable overall.
- Bottom
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Market Insights: V-Shaped Recoveries and Investor Behavior The market experienced a sharp V-shaped bottom in April, catching many investors off guard. Frustration is palpable among those who sold during the panic, only to miss the swift rebound. Now, with markets at all-time

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The most important U.S. trade deals are with Mexico and Canada. Top 3 Trading Partners 1. Mexico ($6.3 Trillion) -Largest US trading partner driven by USMCA agreement -Significant trade imbalance with US importing more than exporting -Major imports: manufactured goods,

The most important U.S. trade deals are with Mexico and Canada. 

Top 3 Trading Partners
1. Mexico ($6.3 Trillion)

-Largest US trading partner driven by USMCA agreement
-Significant trade imbalance with US importing more than exporting
-Major imports: manufactured goods,
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Market Regimes: 1) PFL Crowded Long and Locked in a Momentum Up Trend -> Bell part of the distribution -> Normal Distribution -> Sharpe Ratio 2) Price oscillations between the extremes of the Bell part of the distribution -> Student t(3) Distribution -> Sortino Ratio 3)

Market Regimes:

1) PFL Crowded Long and Locked in a Momentum Up Trend -> Bell part of the distribution -> Normal Distribution  -> Sharpe Ratio 

2) Price oscillations between the extremes of the Bell part of the distribution -> Student t(3) Distribution -> Sortino Ratio

3)
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livestream.tesla.com Tesla Q2 2025 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast Elon made these claims: 16:25 Tesla is better than google at real world data. Intelligence per GB = IQ/GB Tesla has the highest intelligence density of any AI by far. TSLA -> Highest IQ/GB xAI ->

livestream.tesla.com
Tesla Q2 2025 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast

Elon made these claims: 

16:25 Tesla is better than google at real world data. 
Intelligence per GB = IQ/GB

Tesla has the highest intelligence density of any AI by far.
 
TSLA -> Highest IQ/GB 
xAI ->
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Market Metrics Update: 7-25-25 Summary: The Market Condition Model Dashboard, as of July 30, 2025, presents a neutral to moderately positive outlook for financial markets, with a mix of supportive short-term indicators and cautionary signals in longer-term trends. -Long

Market Metrics Update: 7-25-25

Summary:

The Market Condition Model Dashboard, as of July 30, 2025, presents a neutral to moderately positive outlook for financial markets, with a mix of supportive short-term indicators and cautionary signals in longer-term trends.

-Long
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Too much bad news at the same time: -Weekly Bearish Engulfing SPX Candle - Copper Crash - Trump Tariffs Deadline - Russia Deadline - Fed - Trump War - Bad Jobs Number - TSLA Lawsuit loss. forexfactory.com/news/1354248-t… apnews.com/article/tesla-…

Too much bad news at the same time:

-Weekly Bearish Engulfing SPX Candle
- Copper Crash
- Trump Tariffs Deadline
- Russia Deadline
- Fed - Trump War
- Bad Jobs Number
- TSLA Lawsuit loss.

forexfactory.com/news/1354248-t…

apnews.com/article/tesla-…
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Estimate where the price of SPX , TSLA, NVDA, SOXL, SVIX, SVOL, MSTR, GLD, SLV, CPER will be if BTC goes down to $20,000 USD? Answer by Abacus.AI Deep Agent: Risk Category Definitions: Safe Haven: Expected decline ≤ 5% in worst case Low Risk: Expected decline

Estimate where the price of SPX , TSLA, NVDA, SOXL, SVIX, SVOL, MSTR, GLD, SLV, CPER will be if BTC goes down to $20,000 USD? 

Answer by Abacus.AI Deep Agent: 

Risk Category Definitions:

Safe Haven: Expected decline ≤ 5% in worst case
Low Risk: Expected decline
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Estimate where the price of SPX , TSLA, NVDA, SOXL, SVIX, SVOL, MSTR, GLD, SLV, CPER will be if BTC goes down to $20,000 USD? Price estimates by Grok 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro Deep Research, and ChatGPT Deep Research. Summary: This scenario underscores a fundamental shift in the

Estimate where the price of SPX , TSLA, NVDA, SOXL, SVIX, SVOL, MSTR, GLD, SLV, CPER will be if BTC goes down to $20,000 USD?

Price estimates by Grok 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro Deep Research, and ChatGPT Deep Research.

Summary: 

This scenario underscores a fundamental shift in the
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Market Metrics Update: 8-1-25 Summary: The market currently operates in a Risk-On regime, characterized by low stress, positive macro directional momentum, and stable liquidity, though with neutral cycle and flow dynamics tempering enthusiasm. This environment favors

Market Metrics Update: 8-1-25 

Summary: 

The market currently operates in a Risk-On regime, characterized by low stress, positive macro directional momentum, and stable liquidity, though with neutral cycle and flow dynamics tempering enthusiasm. This environment favors