Italy is in a “lose-lose” equilibrium, with low supply and low demand of skills, in a vicious cycle that has clear negative repercussions on productivity, growth and use of new technologies. My comment for Financial Times Valentina Romei on the #Eurostat data ft.com/content/57ed54…

Italy hikes its debt-to-GDP ratio for each year from 2015 to 2018 due to new rules over interest on postal bonds. 2018 is raised to 134.8% from 132.2%. Peak of 135.3% in 2015. Data issued Monday by the Bank of Italy

Our free-to-read analysis of von der Leyen's line-up of commissioners is here: A more divided Europe gets a more assertive Commission country.eiu.com/article.aspx?a…

Sabine Lautenschläger has announced resignation from European Central Bank Executive Board with effect on 31 Oct. German government should designate a female economist to replace her. There are several options, including Isabel Schnabel 🇪🇺🇺🇦, B. Weder di Mauro (regardless of nationality) or Claudia Buch.

Sylvie Goulard, French candidate for the European Commission Internal Market portfolio loses confirmation vote European Parliament with 82 votes against, 29 in favour and 1 abstention. Bad news for Macron.

Excellent post and paper from Real Instituto Elcano, in English, on the Catalan conflict here. 1 realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rie…

Weak manufacturing PMIs get so much attention because they speak to a fear that tariffs are disrupting supply chains. But the PMIs began falling before we got tariffs, i.e. mostly just reflect the usual inventory cycle in manufacturing. Check those recession fears...

Turkish operation in #Syria will reach out to the 30km buffer zone. #Turkey might want to continue well into Rojava (to be able to resettle the full 3.6m Syrian refugees currently in Turkey) but as long as #Erdogan sticks to the 30km, only limited sanctions from #US are likely.

Some thoughts on US/EU sanctions against #Turkey and what these really mean for #NATO, Turkish economy and #Russia [Thread - 1/5]

This is the single most important graph to begin to understand the Catalan conflict: Catalans are split on the issue of independence. IMHO, whoever suggests Catalans are on a "unified struggle against Spain" lacks supporting data. [Thread with some basic figures on Catalonia].👇

In sum: 1. Catalans are pretty divided on independence 2. Divisions are polarizing along identity and socio-econ lines when the choice is binary 3. A non-binary approach opens up perspective Pro-independence parties, instead, have opted for a binary framework.

Very interesting thread by Jorge Galindo on the underlying factors in the Catalan crisis.

Follow my colleague Adeline Van Houtte if you want to know more about #Russia's role in the Syrian crisis

Mario Draghi’s ECB presidency (2011-2019): 8 rate cuts; 0 rate hikes 10 QE announcements (incl. changes in size, duration, rules) 6 (T)LTRO announcements €2.6 trillion asset purchases; balance sheet doubled

Draghi: If one wants to see higher rates sooner, fiscal policy should be active

Draghi: With fiscal policy, the monetary policy objective will be reached sooner with less side-effects

#Salvini

Well, this just happened. Greece's 10-year generic govt bond yield has dipped below Italy's. Aris Iliopoulos believed it would happen, but I was skeptical.

#EU #banks' de-risking making headway with NPL ratio down to 3%. Pockets of risk remain - 🇬🇷🇨🇾🇮🇹🇵🇹🇧🇪- but the clear improvement in asset quality since 2015 should provide some much needed tailwind to #EUbankingunion negotiations, even if imminent breakthrough still very unlikely.

And #Italy's election winner is....Italy government debt! the yield on 10-year government bonds down below 1.05 on Monday