It's finally out!! In my dissertation work with Sari van Anders, we develop the construct of "gender pleasure" via focus groups with LGBTQ+ people where we asked them about positive experiences related to their gender/sexes. Also with Jane Mao 🏳️‍⚧️ Jay Irwin (he/they) 🏳️‍⚧️ psycnet.apa.org/record/2025-12…

I generally try avoid swearing on here, but goddamn this is a good article. psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/2025-…

Ecological Niche Modeling Tutorial with R 🌍 Covers the basics with presence data cleaning, raster processing, variable selection, modeling and projection 👇 🔗 Online: bit.ly/48v2GgQ 📄 PDF: bit.ly/3C4pBDC #Ecology #Biodiversity #Modeling #OpenScience #GIS

Here are my thoughts on Tuesday night. Democrats will likely take back the House, though it may be late in the week before we see that for certain. I have no good feel for the Senate. A lot depends on presidential coattails. For President, I'll give states to watch. 1/13

In this example, it’s not the “mixed effects” model that prevents the issue. It’s the fixed effects.

Just don't! So much of my econometrics class is spent un-doing common misconceptions like this. Normality of errors is not needed Heteroskedasticity is not a problem for bias Multicollenearity is not a problem for bias

If you want to deepen your understanding of linear algebra and study modules (the generalization of a vector space), what many algebraists consider as the most important of all algebraic structures, I would invest some time in Blyth's pdf text on module theory. Link in comments

BREAKING NEWS: Hadley Wickham is working on a new R package for AI. It's leveling the AI playing field with Python.

This is one of my favorite central limit theorems. Mathematically, we spend too much time thinking about the behavior of the average and not enough time thinking about the behavior of the extremes which is important for stuff like economic crises, climate change and war.

Not sure how to follow Election Night? Use my Election Night Watchlist! It'll show you how different types of places are voting vs. past elections. Will college towns swing to Harris? Is Trump making inroads in cities? I'll update it as results come in! docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

Bookmark my version of the NYT needle for Georgia on Tuesday! ga2024president.github.io The model runs over 3 million simulations total per run. Estimated margin in each county when no results have been reported (as it is shown now) is based *only* on a regression of 2020 results.

538 has produced county-level benchmarks for determining who's leading the POTUS race on election night. Interactive dashboard here: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-…

When you see results starting to come in tomorrow night (& beyond) context is everything Sometimes mail and/or early ballots are counted first (more D), then Election Day ballots are counted (more R) — causing a “blue mirage” Sometimes there’s a red mirage Here’s a guide: 🧵

A comprehensive guide to Election Day/Night: 🧵

Some resources I'll be using to follow election night: ⏰ When to expect results in every state: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/when-will-we-k… 🗺 County-by-county vote benchmarks for every state: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-… 🪛 Bolts's guide to under-the-radar races to watch: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the-b…

Welp, I wasn't planning on making this public this year. A. Cuz the NYT Needle is WAY better B. No guarantee we continue updating this past 8PM But with the Needle possibly going down, I DO have a personal Needle-esque Projection Spreadsheet for tonight that y'all can follow.

As Kentucky is the first state to close (6 PM EST), there's one county to look out for: Franklin County went to Trump by 4 in 2016 and by 1 in 2020. It contains the capital Frankfurt and has been trending left. If Harris wins it, it may bode well elsewhere in the suburbs.

All eyes will be on Hamilton County, Indiana in 15 minutes.