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On the newest episode of One on One, I sit down with AEI's polling expert Daniel Cox to talk about the growing social and political divide between Generation Z men and women.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dan…

LDS voters are reliably Republican, but remain a potential weak spot in Trump's coalition. Ximena investigates this intriguing storyline in the 2024 campaign that has not gotten much attention.

npr.org/2024/04/14/124…

“Young women raised in Republican households are far less likely than young men to identify as Republican as adults.” Daniel Cox ifstudies.org/blog/why-repub…

🚨🚨New Harvard IOP Poll

2024 Vote Preference...

Young men:
52% Biden
35% Trump

Young women:
69% Biden
21% Trump

Young men becoming more Republican/conservative in new Harvard IOP poll.

Poll also found Biden doing much better with young women than young men. iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/47t…

Polls consistently show more voters trust Dems than Rs to handle abortion. But in NBC News polling, Rs led narrowly on which party voters trusted to protect their constitutional rights more broadly; even white women split evenly. Freedom is 'contested ground,' says Daniel Cox

Just a massive 20-point gender gap in the latest NY Times/Siena poll.

Our 2020 Mitofsky award winner Karlyn Bowman writes, “Sexual Harassment: A Polling Chronology,” for @‌Forbes, and we thank her for using #RoperiPoll during her research. bit.ly/3TSwxsY

We all talk about race, but the best single predictor of voting intention in our survey is religion. (Most voters are white, and race doesn't tell you anything about white voters’ preferences.) For white, Hispanic, and Asian voters, the more important u say religion is to u 4/x

Robert Putnam made this same observation. The social and civic benefits of religion are independent of the particular types of belief. They derive from behavior.

Pollsters who do not use binary gender questions should know that nonbinary/other categories are correlated with ideological ID.

If you're tracking changes in pol. ID over time (esp. among young people), you're no longer comparing apples to apples.

I don't think you can understand the growing gender gap among young adults w/o recognizing the seachange in reported exp. of discrimination.

'Have you ever experienced discrimination or been treated unfairly because of your gender?'

Among women:
18-29: 52%
65+: 34%

This chart would have been unimaginable just a few years ago

For folks commenting on the new Pew Research Center study (which is fascinating) I'd offer the gentle reminder that it is based on REGISTERED VOTERS so it's not directly comparable to GP polls.

This will be esp. true of groups with lower reg. status

Blacks
Latinos
Young adults