As one would expect from an ancestrally Democratic area, there are a number of Democratic county officials in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. However, these Dem officeholders are not evenly distributed as their presence aligns with higher concentrations of Finnish-Americans.

Apologies for another ghastly ggplot, but you can see that within race-education groups, the highest-income voters are the Trumpiest, and that having a union member in the household increases Dem vote share by ~10 % pts. Similar effect to adding one tier of education 12/n

Very interesting study. 31% of the UK electorate are 'homo-nativists':

Positive on homosexuality, negative on immigration

Something that is increasingly apparent in many nationalist parties in Europe (France and the Netherlands especially)

blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpol…

'In 2008, just 10% of Hispanic immigrants identified as Protestants. By 2022, this share had nearly doubled to 19%. Meanwhile, the percentage identifying as Catholic saw a significant decline, falling from 65% to just 47%' via Ryan Burge 📊

We don't talk enough about how historically weird the baby boom was

Among college students between the ages of 18 and 25, a bare majority of atheists and agnostics say they are cisgender and heterosexual.

Among Muslims, it's 85%.
Among Protestants and Catholics, it's 83%.

The US has become a strikingly less religious country over the course of my adult life.

In the 35 years after the Roe ruling, the American public settled into a 'wishy-washy' equilibrium on abortion where Roe v Wade was popular but most abortion restrictions were also popular.

But the last 12 years have changed the politics on this issue enormously!

Public…

(1) Women have more meaningful jobs than men and this gap is growing over time. 2/8

lots of fun stuff in this pew poll, gonna start a thread of pics pewresearch.org/2024/03/21/vie…

The breakdown of Portugal's vote by age remains pretty stunning. When today's pensioners age out of the population, the left will be in a deep crisis. Among 18-34 year olds, left-of-centre parties pooled just 30% of the vote — vs 58% among 65+ year olds.

List of cities that flipped against Putin from 2018 to 2024 in Russian Citizens Abroad voting (1st screenshot, cites like London, NYC, Jerusalem, Barcelona, etc)
As well as cities that stuck with Putin in both 2018/2024 (2nd screenshot: Baku, Berlin, Rio De Janeiro, Houston, etc)

@JonSchw73589513 Zaid Jilani Carlos Mucha tyson brody Some actual data from a large conjoint experiment we did in 2019:

Pro-Israel messaging goes from being the 56th most effective message for the population overall to being the most effective message among Jewish Americans.

Anti-Israel messaging overtakes reparations as worst.

Matthew Yglesias It's super interesting that the Trump era had a radicalizing effect on a lot of prominent black public intellectuals that corresponded with working-class black voters shifting toward the Republican party.

Of course you could say the exact same thing about white public…

If you organize the CDs into quartiles by Hispanic population per Dave's Redistricting (well technically 13 most, 24 middle, 13 least after removing 2 non GOP vs Dem contests) you see that Democratic vote share fell much more in the most Hispanic districts.

I just posted this paper, written for a symposium at Washington & Lee, on the real-world record of instant-runoff voting.

A key question about any voting method is how often it elects the 'Condorcet winner,' favored by voters over any other candidate.

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

Lots of people in CS are (almost surely) GPT-ing their peer reviews
arxiv.org/abs/2403.07183

Because I was curious, this is the CCES data on Black Conservatives by party ID, 2006-2020. There's a clear drop in Democratic ID over time.