I have received a few questions via DM about this chart. Here it is in 2012—the state polling was consistently more accurate. I saw the same thing in '00.

The Whig coalition almost completely changed between these two elections lol. The map on the left is the 1849 gubernatorial election, while the map on the right is the 1852 one. (I made both of these maps btw)

What will the voter turnout (% of voting eligible population, VEP) be in 2024? Previous turnouts: 2020: 66.6% 2016: 60.1% 2012: 58.6% 2008: 61.6% 2004: 60.1% 2000: 54.2%

Lincoln on his support for the Radical Republicans

Which Presidency/House split is more likely?

Interest rate traders now thinks theres a 59% chance of a 50 point cut at the September Fed meeting, 41% chance of a 25 point cut Polymarket has it at 50% chance of a 25 point cut, 49% chance of a 50 point cut, 1% no cut

People who responded to my poll think the chance of "Kamala wins + R House" is about the same as "Trump wins + D House", while Polymarket traders think there's a MUCH higher chance of the "Trump wins + D House" scenario:

Does feel like senate Dem numbers are converging a bit with Harris

Ratings change: WI Toss-up -> Safe Democratic

Nantucket Island was the last refugium of the Whigs in 1855:

The statewide portion of this poll also finds 40-40 deadlock whether to retire Maine's current flag and instead adopt "Pine Tree Flag." panatlanticresearch.com/omnibus

Oh also just noticed this while going through some of those polls but the Communist leader is actually the most popular leader in Greece