RFK Jr has a limited constituency of alienated voters, but I suspect @vp would love to see him & Trump campaign together too in the suburbs of Philadelphia, Detroit, Milwaukee, Phoenix & Atlanta talking about, say, opposition to vaccine mandates in public schools

Headline on this @LATimesSkeltoncolumn says it all: Gavin Newsom and lawmakers bow to Google, sticking it to the news industry latimes.com/california/sto…

NEW from Pew Research Center: The 2024 presidential campaign has changed dramatically in just a few weeks. What hasn't changed is the enormous gulf in cultural and political values between supporters of Harris (previously Biden) and supporters of Trump: pewresearch.org/politics/2024/…

You asked. My best shot from the 2024 Democratic National Convention taken for POLITICO A pensive pic after Kamala Harris's speech. Let the picture tell the story. You saw it on Morning Joe - Joe Scarborough Mika Brzezinski George Conway Charlie Sykes Adam Kinzinger (Slava Ukraini) 🇺🇸🇺🇦🇮🇱 Bill Kristol Mike Barnicle Chris Whipple Kasie Hunt

NEW: It’s hardly a secret Newsom wished he was in Harris’ shoes. He wore the tight smile you see when they flash on the Best Actor nominees before showing the Oscar winner take the stage. Unpacking California's most complicated political relationship: latimes.com/politics/story…

My Dem-hack comment re: polling in FL: Florida is never going to be a tipping point state this cycle. We should all be way less concerned about toplines or even the outcome than how the energy is used to register voters and build real infrastructure. steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2024/8/14…

I guess nobody is going to believe this but unlike 2016, 2020 and even 2022, there are basically zero signs to suggest a significant polling error is in the cards for either side right now. For once, the polls basically align with non-polling indicators.

DNC planners wanted him to kick off Monday night’s prime time programming, but Newsom begged off. Couldn’t make it on time, he said. Children starting a new school year latimes.com/politics/story… Mark Z. Barabak

Four dams along the Klamath River are nearly gone now — and after decades of fighting to restore the river, members of the Yurok & Karuk tribes are feeling hopeful. If you’re looking for inspiration, read this story from my Los Angeles Times colleague Ian James: latimes.com/environment/st…

A lot of us were wondering if the newly released 538 model differed methodologically from their old one (pre-Biden dropout) They just published an in-depth, frank explainer on what happened & their new approach Good on them (& ABC) for the transparency abcnews.go.com/538/538-adjust…

We keep hearing that Harris “has to” win the national popular vote by X number of points if she wants to overcome the “Electoral College penalty.” Except, no one has any idea ahead of time what the penalty will be. The Electoral College gods are fickle!

Big picture observations from the flood of polls from this AM plus Fox News state polls from last night: • Presidential race is very tight across basically all the swing states • Mixed evidence on post-DNC bounce for Harris • Most downballot Dems are in good-to-great shape

Harris - Walz interview 🧵 It’s hard to see anything Harris or her running mate said Thursday night changing the fundamentals of the closely fought presidential race/1

Wow, most Republicans thought she did terribly? Most Democrats thought she did ok/well? Most independents probably didn’t care or watch? It’s almost as if this country is deeply polarized, most people are in media and social media echo chambers, and confirmation bias is a thing.

"Working class" is basically a political identity. It has nothing to do with class.

California’s 45th Congressional District is home to the most people of Vietnamese descent outside Vietnam. It’s also a key target for Democrats as they try to take back the House. Will a Vietnamese American candidate help them move the needle? My latest: latimes.com/california/sto…

Good explanation of an important point: We can make guesses about the size & scope of electoral college bias, but that’s all they are. The gap between popular vote & the EC isn’t some law of physics that can precisely predicted.

Yup. Shameless self-promotion, but one of the descriptive results I show in the paper I’ll be presenting at APSA next week is that a majority of *every income subgroup* (up to > $500,000/yr) in the US believes “the elites” are keeping “the people” down. Real dissonance there!

I love this chart from CNN/Ariel Edwards-Levy with NO CLEAR LEADER for the within-MOE findings. The text stands out and the message is clear.

The Real-Time Crime Index (Real-Time Crime Index) launches today with data from more than 300 agencies nationwide! The RTCI is designed to show national crime trends as they develop from as many agencies as possible with as little lag as possible. realtimecrimeindex.com