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The crazy thing about aging is that even if fertility magically rebounds, in the short and medium term it'd massively increase the dependency ratio. You'd have the problem Africa has with too many youth relative to working age pop + the issue of Japan has with too much elderly

Panama had a lower per capita income than Mexico and Brazil in 2010, it's currently nearly 2x as rich

This has nothing to do with consumerism, humans have always been materialist. It's due to modernity. To survive, you have to adopt a western scientific approach to your agriculture, military and economy. This seeps into your culture, to the point you become a pseudo-Westerner

The many benefits of first mover advantage in modernization is your culture becomes prestigious. Japan is to Asia what France was to Europe. In 1991 Japan was nearly 100x wealthier than China.

Interesting. In deaths of despair, Slovenia edges out the USA

In 2025, if someone lies back and thinks of England, they may well think of Bonnie Blue. The porn star’s strengths are Britain’s strengths, our political columnist suggests econ.st/44c8SK7

WW1 happened at the worst period. A few years earlier and armies don't have the firepower for Western Front trench warfare, and the conflict probably ends in months like the Franco-Prussian wars. A few years later, and trucks would've made trench warfare unfeasible on that scale

Basically true. Something like Game of Thrones could not filmed today.

Most of SSA is in a momentum trap. Previously it had high infant mortality which blunted population growth. As Healthcare improved but it's fertility transition stalled, the population momentum increased meaning you needed 4%+ GDP growth to just not get poorer.

They won't. 63% of global GDP growth in 2025 is the US, EU and China. The criteria for becoming an attractive production location is changing. In the past it was low cost manufacturing and abundant labour. Now it's becoming capital intensive. Growth will be a rich man's game.

A fascinating example here. Singapore is 13x wealthier than Thailand, but records higher economic growth. Malaysia is 3x richer than Philippines/Indonesia, yet has similar growth rates.

The Historical median age of the United States compared to equivalents in the modern day

Thailand has essentially stopped growing. Nominal GDP is the same as it was 7 years ago, and growth this year is around 1.8%. This is likely to be the new norm. bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinio…

Due to a combination of decently high growth, low inflation, and stagnant/declining populations, the countries in Eastern Europe and the Balkans have the fastest per capita income growth in the world, and the few regions seeing convergence.

An analysis on immigration policies by political orientation in various Western countries showed there's very little difference in outcomes

The maximum level of emigration is between 3k-10k GDP per capita. Peak emigration is still very far for much of Africa and Asia. Combined with the worsening dependency ratio in richer countries, and there is going to be an ever-growing phenomenon of mass migration.

In 1990, 35% of migrants from Africa lived outside the continent. Today the share is 45%. That amounts to 20.7m people, triple the figure in 1990 and more than the number of Indians living outside India (18.5m) or of Chinese outside China (11.7m).

Such a disgusting narrative. Africa is poor because all it's economic gains get eaten up by population growth. Capital cannot compound fast enough. Even if DRC, Nigeria, Ethiopia had 4% per capita growth for 25 years, they'd still be as poor as Myanmar. This has been locked in.

Growth in ASEAN as a whole has not been great.