I’m at the point where I see ‘there’s no military solution’ and I’m not sure if folks are talking about Gaza or US college campuses.

Bad news just as momentum for a hostage/ceasefire deal seemed to be increasing.

Saudis reiterating Arab peace initiative principles here--clear path to Palestinian state for normalization with Israel.

Suggestions of an anti-Iran alliance emerging in the Middle East are overenthusiastic and fail to grasp the complexity of the region’s challenges, write Dalia Dassa Kaye and Sanam Vakil صنم وكىل via Foreign Affairs.

foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/an…

'But what exactly is the red line? Is it only high ranking people? Is it only embassies? Or is it every Iranian target in Syria?” Very good questions likely to be tested in weeks ahead.
nytimes.com/2024/04/19/wor…

'If one missile lands in the wrong spot, we’re in a different ballgame'

Dalia Dassa Kaye on the dynamics of escalation between Iran and Israel

globaldispatches.org/p/iran-israel-…

Hamas clearly trying to keep Iran in the fight but thankfully Iran seems to be playing Israel's limited response down (so far at least).

👇key point. this strike is not unprecedented. Israel clearly trying to return to shadow war dynamic which is still dangerous but better than direct Israel-Iran war.

Best case scenario: Israel choosing low end/limited response to Iran's high end attack last weekend + Iran playing it down = offramp from this dangerous round.

But did Iran 'change the equation' to deter Israeli strikes on IRGC? On Hezbollah? Unlikely.

So Israel does not seem to shifting course and officially accepting responsibility for attack. This would follow previous precedent. If Iran plays it down this might be the end of this tit-for-tat escalation which is good news.

So in summary:
- Israel signaling this was a limited attack
- Iran claiming it shot down three small drones & no attack on nuclear sites
- Airspace back open
If it’s what it looks like (big if) then we’re seeing conditions for de-escalation on both sides, not a lurch to war.

Good recap of the unfolding Israel-Iran conflict since Israel's April 1 strike. From the early days of the Gaza war it was clear miscalculations could get us to this point as I laid out in Foreign Affairs last October:
foreignaffairs.com/israel/will-wa…

A Hezbollah attack in northern Israel causing serious injuries comes at a particularly dangerous moment. The region is already on edge in anticipation of an Israeli response to Iran's unprecedented direct attack over the weekend.

A rational response but will Israel's current cabinet/political leaders agree?

Meanwhile...

👇Good points from Becca Wasser on tempering expectations for Arab-Israeli defense cooperation in the aftermath of Iran's attack.