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During the recent sell-off, 65% of the 17 technical metrics I cared about the most, signaled oversold. Historically about 48% is what is needed to be statistically near a tradeable short-term bottom in the stock market. I also thought volatility would decline from the Vix index

Bond mkt is 20-30% bigger than stock mkt. “Credit is the lifeblood of the economy.” ~50 bps rise in 10 & 30 yr yield in a tumultuous wk rivals issues during GFC. $USD from $110 in Jan to ~$100 increases losses for foreign investors. Worried something breaking if this continues.

This past week, President Trump exemplified the quote by John Maynard Keynes: "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" During the recent sell-off, 65% of the technical 17 metrics I cared about the most signaled oversold. Historically about 48% is what is

$NVDA writing off $5.5B related to China restrictions is a warning flag. Obviously this product is not as great as the latest Blackwell chips but they should not need to be written off if demand was that robust globally. I also believe the upcoming hyperscaler CQ1 results in

With the first of the Magnificent 7 set to report tonight, these are my thoughts on earnings season in general. Tariff uncertainty has likely pulled in demand a tremendous amount as companies and consumers alike rush to get in front of price increases. Therefore results and

TSLA EPS was $0.27 (down 40% y/y) vs consensus of $0.41 and revs were $19.3B (down 9% y/y) vs consensus of $21.2B. This follows 2024 in which deliveries were down for the first time in over a decade while the industry grew 25%. Further, this is the lowest Q1 revs in 3 years and

While I started the year with cash as my leading pick and no Magnificent 7 names, on April 7th I did a CNBC interview that was titled “Might see a short-term bounce, but still cautious long-term, says investor Dan Niles.” On April 9th, the 90 day pushback on tariffs as

Test for recent 12% S&P & 15% Mag7 bear-market bounce since 4/8. $V saying “Consumer spending remained resilient, even with macroeconomic uncertainty.” But for AI, $SMCI -pre with ~15% rev miss: “During Q3 some delayed customer platform decisions moved sales into Q4.” I would say

While I started the year with cash as my leading pick given my concerns entering the year, on April 7th I did a CNBC interview that was titled “Might see a short-term bounce, but still cautious long-term, says investor Dan Niles.” On April 9th, the 90 day pushback on tariffs by

So far, the turmoil in the S&P has been related to goods based tariffs. But the 100% tariff announced on films (where we are net exporters) produced overseas goes after services which are ~70% of the economy. If tariffs spread to other services sectors, this could get ugly.

Eddy Cue of $AAPL commented that their own browser search was down in April for the first time. This confirms the trends that $GOOGL saw in Q1:25 where paid clicks were +2% y/y vs +5% in Q1:24 and +8% in Q1:23, the quarter after ChatGPT burst onto the scene at in late 2022. He

$TSM released today that April revenue was +48% y/y. Revenue started the year at +36% y/y in January and has accelerated every month since then. The bullish spin that AI demand remains strong seems to be driving TSM +1.5% intraday. But my internal 25 stock AI index is down 0.7%.

For those that want to get into the mathematical weeds, this post explains the improvements that we can likely expect from the latest version of DeepSeek R2 coming soon. This is based on research of their recently published papers. x.com/WarrenNiles1/s…

On April 7th I did a CNBC interview that was titled “Might see a short-term bounce, but still cautious long-term, says investor Dan Niles.” The great thing about expecting a bear market rally or the start of the next bull market is the investment positioning is no different.

$CSCO, my Top large cap tech pick for the yr at a PE of 16x vs S&P at 23x, had a beat & raise qtr. I still believe CY25 will be a yr to invest in moving AI data in the enterprise. AI infrastructure orders from webscale customers exceeded their $1B cumulative target one qtr early.

Prior debt downgrades have been followed by S&P drops of 8-10%. In 2023 inflation concerns drove 10yr yields to the highest in a decade. In 2011, there were fears of a renewed EU debt crisis. Today, tariff rollbacks is driving a pickup in the economy & the decline should be less.

Yesterday, $JPM CEO Jamie Dimon said he believes Wall Street estimates for S&P earnings growth will go to 0% from 12% to start the year as the impact of tariffs work through the economy “which means PE will come down.” He also said asset prices are “kind of high” and credit

For $NVDA, on April 27th I wrote “While their quarter ends in April, four reasons make me optimistic on the stock in the near-term:” Nothing spurs demand like a future increase in prices from tariffs and potential export controls combined with the benefit in future quarters from