Ouch

At least Brad calling it out that the $500b is wacky compared to past generational tech companies. Also, Goog and Meta had real MOAT's (as seen by their profit generation at similar point in time), OAI is getting attacked at all angles with no clear MOAT outside of brand.

OpenAI was non consensus in 2019, Google non consensus in 1998, Airbnb non consensus in 2008, Palantir non consensus in 2003. That is where the power law return is made, building a product so good/unique that it moves the market to consensus as the product scales and matures.

OAI at $500b and $GOOG at $2.5trn seems so crazy to me. Think about how long and amt of $ it would take OAI to build Cloud at $50b ARR, TPUs, Waymo 250k rides a week, YT >$50b in revs, leading LLM w Gemini, Deepmind, Search w $200b revs growing 12%. OAI has ChatGPT $13b ARR.

$CRM added $1.6b of ARR this quarter. $PLTR added $480m. $CRM did $10.2b of rev this Q, $PLTR $1.0b. $CRM did $2.3b of EBIT this Q, $PLTR $269m. $CRM worth $220b EV, $PLTR $360b.

So OAI kept their 2025/2026 rev projections the same, but increased FCF losses by nearly 2x for 2025/2026 with $20b of losses in 2026? And then magically raised 2029 revenue projection by $25b? Next 3 years will be remarkably fun to watch this play out, and could b very painful

This OAI $ORCL $300b deal will be case study of a lifetime. OAI needs $300b cash next 6 years, while burning projected $120b next 4 years. $ORCL, only doing $20b of OCF and with already $110b in debt, will need to take on massive debt to fund the DC’s.

Also, a question that nobody is asking, why did $MSFT turn down this $300b OAI deal? They had ROFR on all OAI computing needs. $MSFT does $130b of OCF per year, much better position than $ORCL financially to take on this capacity. $MSFT one of the smartest allocators in the world

LOL, what a moment in time! Talk about the circle of life and round tripping of revenue

This just enhances $AMZN MOAT. Bits vs atoms, same day and next day delivery at zero cost to consumer untouched by this. Would cost a company likely now >$500b to build out logistics infrastructure for that speed. $SHOP tried and failed

This is whats hard to wrap my head around. Everyone calling 2025 like it's 2021, but no flurry of IPO's, why? Maybe because in the public markets, all non AI companies are trading at close to 2023 lows! What happens to all the non-AI native Unicorns? 15-20x FCF is a harsh reality

What I can't understand is the public releases by Perplexity/OpenAI and other AI natives. What's the MOAT of the product and why can't $Goog or other tech company just copy/distribute to their billions of users for free? Chrome can/will do everything that ChatGPT browser can do

Remarkable how hard that is, what execution

We got trained by ex-FBI to detect lies in manager meetings. The #1 indicator is "Protest Statements", where a person either fails to answer question, uses attacking behavior, detour statements, or complaints. Sam Altman on the pod had every single indicator we learned.

They all love their early-stage strategies. But when you have >$5b fund, You’re optimized for large checks. Best teams focus/attention will be on the biggest checks in those funds, comes down to alignment, that is how they’ll make or lose the most money!

Hahaha this is so so good

$NU in 3 years has grown employee base from 8k to 9.6k (20% total growth). Over that time, TTM revenue has gone from $3.9b to $14b and negative profits to $2.5b in net income. Wow

Yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes, growth equity VCs please take note

LOL wow

Next week announce round at $50b? Upside from there