prediction market this prediction market that, traditional sports-betting companies are cooked.

X polls: the prediction market of the prediction market

playfully reframed for tardfi: 1) if you optimize for immediate returns, you become a momentum chasing normie with probability 1 2) the above is basically a preference for short odds / optimizing win rate, which is a typical normie / hedge fund thing to do then blow up on left

Kalshi = “everything” in Arabic

the oneshotted trader mentality: probability of success: 100% reward in big corporation: $1m probability of success in entrepreneurship: 10% reward in entrepreneurship: $5m big corporation ev: $1m entrepreneurship ev: $500k big corporation -> entrepreneurship net ev: -$500k

investing is the most seamless way to monetize curiosity

everyone looks but no one sees

“prediction markets will become the financial market's new lingua franca”

prediction markets are a combination of multiple categories of markets. each has unique tam and difficulties defiance beautifully categorizes each market’s respective opportunities we’re hiring a quantitative researcher to undertake an S-tier opportunity please reach out

the stock market is a prediction market for companies' future free cash flow

less hate and more building manners make man ❤️ Shayne Coplan 🦅 & Tarek Mansour

we're hiring! - Quantitative Researcher - Research Engineer apply here: forms.gle/hRnQ6pbGzrjSHj…

at the meta level it’s a talent game. finance channels money from those who have it to those with brains. and brains, more than anyone, care deeply about market microstructure.

+104%. 7 months and 3 days. portfolio now denominated in watts and prayers.