For those looking at their stock portfolios this weekend, here's a reminder of why there was flawed bi-partisan conviction in the US that tariffs aren't inflationary, and why we're starting to pay for that intellectual laziness.

which is why we risk a major brain drain in subsequent generations in sectors where it is easy for well educated/trained Brits to get jobs abroad. A higher marginal tax conditional upon higher earnings, rather than an a simple liaiblity, gives a motivation to move as income rises

If I were Florida & Vegas, I'd be sweating the idea a post Liberation day EU may impose OTT taxes on direct flights from Europe while keeping California & New York untouched

Bretton Woods meets Mara Logger

Re US current account balance sustainability. Can someone tell President Donald J. Trump and his team the US doesn't have a fixed exchange rate.

Markets are reaching for the Turkish risk premium ft.com/content/600dcf… a clear message from Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan. Irrespetive of monetary policy, when efforts to consolidate power conflict with an ability to move capital freely, the cost of capital rises & investment disappoints.

Tariffs are a tool for weak poor countries to protect their industry & compensate for an inability to collect taxes. Stronger countries strengthen factor endowments (infrastructure, education, tax incentives). This is the start of the Argentisation of the US. It won't end well.

The world is having a Truss like moment. The difference of course is US bonds rally when the sky is falling. By the time the bond markets start to punish policy makers, we'll be in this so deep that a change at the top won't solve the problem

That was quick!

If the founding fathers understood the how quickly the cost of capital can change, they probably wouldn't have given the President unrestrained authority over tariff policy.

If yesterday was any guide, the bond market has introduced the concept of mutually assured destuction to tariff negotiations. Trump's over weaponisation of tariffs ultimately diminished the NPV of his arsenal.

In a world where the Istanbul mayor was not arrested, Turkey would have made a claim to join the ranks of the world's financial market safe havens. With its relative positon in this global uncertainty, amazing what one announcement could mean for Turkiye's economic outlook.

The structural economic damage is less Trump's policies than the confimation an untethered individual President has this power. The US's most valuable structural economic reform would be for Congress to reclaim control of tariff policy

Attention fans of free speech and universities that want to avoid unjustified student deportations. You should define which sorts of behaviors are anti-semetic...and which are not. Until that line is drawn, free speech and the Palestinian narrative will suffer.

For anyone who has read Miran's signature MAGA economic blueprint, this will not be a surprise x.com/CribstoneMacro…

So an Israeli PM sought to justify avoiding a civilian hunger crisis by stating a failure to do so would endanger a military operation. Israel remains an active combatant in a fight over land. Until it decides it wants no more land, Israel's aim is only security, not peace