1 day VIX collapsing... 6.92 was the intra-day low on 07/18/23, probably test that next week

only 3 instances in 2023, prior to today, where VIX1d was higher than VIX for 3 consecutive days... 1mo later, CDX-IG: Mar-13 -16bps * Mar-23 -10bps Jun-15 -4bps Dec-13 ? more upside long risk here? Probably, but not much... *Mar-13 was the ytd

lot of talk of crypto ETFs these days ... what about those Gold ETFs?

seems like they are missing 30mm ounces

is this analysis wrong? Bloomberg's Total Known ETF Holdings of Gold [ETFGTOTL] = 82,344,311 oz the chart below suggests the ETF should hold closer to 112,000,000 oz so, the ETFs need to buy 30 million oz that's 937.5 tons it's impossible to source that kind of size

takeaway: if investor demand returns [and this chart recouples] ETFs will need to source +900 tons #Gold price needs to be much higher to bring out that kind of supply

What happens when 0DTE option buyers focus on GLD? How is GLD gonna source the metal ? the price will need to rise enough to bring out real sellers

Spring vacation reading has arrived! Congratulations Lawrence McDonald on your big day. Best wishes to you, your family and the The Bear Traps Report team

Home prices in NYC suburbs are skyrocketing again. Buyers paying +2-500k over list in heavy competition. All very recent. Widespread. Montclair, NJ: listed 1.195mm in Jan, sold 1.660mm zillow.com/homedetails/18…

🇯🇵JGB 2.3 12/20/54 +15bps new 25 year high yield.... but $94 2.66% for 30yr JGB risk doesn't seem like tremendous value

this is also a problem for enhanced credit strategies where index managers swap cash treasuries for futures, and use the excess cash to add long duration credit.

T 5% 5/15/37 the last US Treasury 30yr bond issue with a 5-handle coupon was August 2007 10yr and 30yr auctions this week "Bonds are driving the bus"

yesterday Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated the need to price credit risk out of US govt debt and President Donald J. Trump flagged "one of the most important announcements that have been made in many years about a certain subject" soon find out why all that Gold was re-patriated back to US soil, perhaps

Pan American Silver Announces Agreement to Acquire MAG Silver Corp. Likely see more of this activity , M&A is a vote of confidence from a leader in an unloved sector

🇺🇸 37t debt, 29t in bills-notes-bonds the 8t balance is mostly notes issued to Social Security Fund which ran surplus until 2021 SS now running a deficit - not rolling the notes China runs a surplus - not rolling either Both want their money back UST needs new buyers

There are 186 billion reasons to audit the Federal Reserve. Let me break it down for you.

Newmont Mining $NEM which is +100% this year would have to roughly double again just to have the same earnings multiple as the S&P500, all else equal (of course, all else is not equal... gold and silver prices keep rising)

What’s the argument against an allocation to gold and silver miners in the portfolio. fundamentals? technicals? performance? valuation? volatility?

simple equation, in my mind, for what silver can do in this cycle =max(market stupidity of last +15 years)^10