🚨 Our 2021 #ProductionGap report is out! 🚨

Two years on, with the climate crisis clearer and more urgent than ever, governments’ planned fossil fuel production remains dangerously out of sync with #ParisAgreement limits. 🧵 productiongap.org

In contrast to growing #netzero commitments, the size of the #productiongap has remained largely unchanged. Governments still plan to produce more than twice the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting long-term global warming to 1.5°C.

To be consistent with limiting long-term warming to 1.5°C, global coal, oil, and fossil gas production must decline immediately and steeply.

But according to government plans, global oil and gas production are projected to increase out to 2040, while coal slightly decreases.

[Technical interlude] In this year's Chapter 2 we also provide a deep-dive into how low-carbon pathways' assumptions re: negative & methane emissions affect our #productiongap estimate. I'm really proud of this chapter and I hope you'll read it!

Besides setting ambitious targets for fossil fuel production, governments also provide support through #subsidies & #publicfinance : G20 countries have directed more funding to fossil fuels than clean energy since the beginning of the COVID19 pandemic. energypolicytracker.org/region/g20

If you'd like to dig into the specific strategies, policies, and projections of individual major fossil fuel producers, check out the 15 country profiles in Chapter 4 of this year's #productiongap report!

As I told Rachel Ramirez CNN: With state-owned companies controlling 50-55% of global coal, oil, and gas production, and policymakers' ability to implement systemic change, governments have a primary role to play in closing the #productiongap . cnn.com/2021/10/20/bus…

As someone who crunches the numbers behind the #productiongap , I can also tell you that more transparent government plans are key! Besides helping to improve the robustness of future assessments, it'll save me a lot of grey hairs combing through the documents😂 Now go read Ch.5!

It has been a long road to getting this report completed and I'm honestly pretty exhausted. But deeply grateful to see all the media coverage so far, especially the #productiongap appearing in print at the The Guardian. Kudos to Damian Carrington! theguardian.com/environment/20…