With LNG Canada onstream I’m moving my gas weighted equity targets to fully unrisked: $AAV: $13 to $130 $ARX: $32 to $320 $BIR: $10 to $100 $KEL: $9 to $90 $NVA: $16 to $160 $PEY: $22 to $220 $PNE: $0.50 to $0.00 $POU: $24 to $240 $TOU: $75 to $750 All ratings to Super Buy

Wells underperforming an aggressive type and they are struggling with balancing load fluid and right sizing fracs. Reservoir energy used to recover water initially; stunts long term EURs. Would say a good analogue is something like Veren Karr right east of the overpressure line.

When one of your positions executes perfectly for years, but dramatically underperforms and you continue to hold out hope:

Checking in on my gas weighted equity call options this AM:

Saw Mr. Rose getting coffee this AM and caught a glimpse of a slide deck he was holding; labelled “New 5 year plan”. Gas volumes going to 10.0 Bcf/d from 3.3 Bcf/d & capex to $5B/yr. AECO to -$3/GJ. This is 100% satire. Hopefully. 🤞

Looking at $IMO multiples right now:

$ARX

Friendly reminder, the only compounding that happens in Canadian energy is down: $CMG $MATR $NOA

Looking at PADD II weekly crude runs:

Boots on the ground market research at spin class this AM: n=47 33 wearing $LULU 8 wearing Alo, Vuori, $ATZ 5 wearing $UA, $NKE, $ADDYY 1 owning Canadian energy shitco’s (me)

Going forward I will match Mike Rose’s $TOU purchases share for share* *on a 1 per 1,000,000 share equivalent basis

More butts in seats research at the local spin class: n=38 (30F, 8M - anomaly) 20 wearing $LULU 7 wearing Alo, Vuori, $ATZ 3 couldn’t see 8 dudes in random $NKE, $UA, $ADDYY 1 thinking what 2027 multiple $LULU will trade at (me) 1 still owning Canadian energy (me)

Getting old means zooming in 300% just to be able to read these microscopic footnotes in the $SCR deck. I’d vote against their deal on this premise alone.

Overheard at the local $LULU: Him: “did you know this is the worst performing stock in the S&P500 YTD?” Her: “do these make my butt look good?” Busiest shops this AM: 1. LEGO / $AAPL tied 2. $LULU Literally zero customers: 1. Alo / bunch of others tied

Thinking of starting a position in $CSU after watching it go up over 24,000%, telling myself it was too expensive for the last 20 years. This is your mega top signal.

I am really hoping these weak commodity prices don’t affect the $PNE drilling program in Q4; been holding my breath waiting for them to drill a well since 2023. Few.

Asked Marty King at the gym this morning if AECO is back or it’s over and he just gave me a weird look. 🤷‍♂️ This is investment advice.