--MY NEW HIGH CAPACITY PIECE-- China and the US are fighting a cold war with double-edged swords. Each action they take causes damage to both sides. I look at the tools/weapons and dynamics of the US-China Cold War.

It just dawned on me that China’s nationwide high-speed rail system is also a strategic hedge against US export controls. Bullet trains provide a partial alternative in case China’s aviation sector loses access to Boeing jets and parts as well as US engines for COMAC.

We’re in a great global supply chain battle: China is trying to reshape global supply chains with China at the center. The US is trying to reshape global supply chains to cut out China.

washingtonpost.com/business/2025/…

Where are US tariffs on China now? We came out of 2018 with a tariff of 18%. Two rounds of 10% fentanyl in Feb. '25 and Mar. '25 took that to 38%. We went to 150% in Apr. '25 and - as of today - are back down to 48% (i.e. 18% from 2018 + 2 fentanyl rounds + 10% universal tariff).

NEW from me: China's CO2 emissions fell ~1.6% in the first quarter and have now been flat or down for more than a year. This is the first time on record that emissions are falling due to clean energy growth, not slow power demand.

Direct exports to the US make up just ~2% of China’s industrial revenues. Electronics and consumer goods are most exposed, but US (or even global) demand is marginal for other industries.

My new piece in the New York Times is an urgent wake-up call. China is forging ahead on the industries of the future: AI, robotics, high-tech manufacturing. Meanwhile, Trump is destroying the pillars of US strength by slashing public R&D funding and scaring away foreign talent.

In 2021, China joined the Kigali Agreement, and pledged to stop emitting HFC-23, a climate super pollutant 14,700x stronger than CO2. The latest atmospheric readings show China is way off track, Phil McKenna & I report in our deep dive: foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/21/chi…

Quick Look Summary from U.S. Naval War College/China Maritime-CMSI Studies Institute’s 14–15 May 2025 Conference: bit.ly/CMSI2025 “The People of China’s Navy & Other Maritime Forces” andrewerickson.com/2025/05/quick-… Background: #CMSI held its biennial unclassified academic conference on

Xi Jinping is not "party chairman," as Secretary Bessent has said repeatedly. Xi has many titles but not that one, which was last held by Hu Yaobang and is most commonly associated with Mao Zedong.

WaPo: A religious pilgrimage from India into China facilitated by both governments has resumed for the first time in five years—the latest sign of a cautious thaw in the contentious relationship between the world’s two most populous nations. Joshua Yang washingtonpost.com/world/2025/06/…

NEW from The Washington Post: A global network of Chinese criminal actors, led by a former triad boss, has been quietly supporting Beijing’s political objectives in Asia and Africa even as it comes under investigation for fraud, money laundering, human trafficking and other crimes.

China’s Communist Party Now Has 100 Million Members. Many Are in It for the Paycheck. In a sluggish economy, membership is seen as a path to a stable state-sector income Chun Han Wong 王春翰 wsj.com/world/china/ch… wsj.com/world/china/ch…

The Washington Post is looking for a new China bureau chief. Apply here washpost.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/washingt…

In China, the master’s degree is the new bachelor’s degree — my latest for The Washington Post washingtonpost.com/world/2025/07/…

Faced with intensifying Chinese encroachment at sea, the Philippines increasingly sees its national security as intertwined with that of Taiwan and is quietly ramping up both formal and informal engagement with the self-governing island. washingtonpost.com/world/2025/07/…

Exciting personal news: I've just signed a book contract with Princeton University Press. My book will be about China's industrial policy, from EVs and batteries to AI and robotics. It's aimed at both general readers and researchers, in the style of my High Capacity newsletter.

New from me: How China's clean energy manufacturing boom is helping reduce CO2 emissions overseas. In 2024, China’s exports of solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles are shaved 1% off global emissions outside of China.

People asked for certainty so I triple checked the data! But the trend is there. Vietnam (and Vinfast) is killing it! Check out my latest unpacking how emerging markets are reshaping the EV narrative and the lessons for policymakers everywhere csis.org/analysis/elect…