At the moment it’s very much 50/50 in the polls on the Biden/Trump 🇺🇸 race here. Slightly better for Biden than in last few months, but Trump is still ahead in the six decisive swing states.

This is as realistic as it is necessary. The 🇺🇦 defence lines need to be strengthened as 🇷🇺 seeks to get its act together for more offensive operations. This will have to the year of strategic defence while strength builds up for 2025. Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський

A decade ago today. After occupying Crimea, 🇷🇺 and its proxy forces started their attempt to carve a Novorossyia out of 🇺🇦. Eventually Putin had to send 🇷🇺 regular battalions into 🇺🇦 to save the effort, resulting in the Minsk agreements.

The 🇺🇸🇯🇵 🇵🇭 summit in Washington yesterday sent a very clear signal to 🇨🇳. That’s important, but careful diplomacy will also be needed to avoid confrontations in the South China Sea.

“For policymakers, that's the challenge: How do you push open the door for new crops and cancer treatments, without leaving it open for a computer-generated catastrophe?” ⁦RAND⁩ rand.org/pubs/articles/…

PM Kishida 🇯🇵 clear in his address to the 🇺🇸 congress: “Russia's unprovoked, unjust, and brutal war of aggression against Ukraine has entered its third year. As I often say, Ukraine of today may be East Asia of tomorrow.”

Reports of 🇸🇦 planing to invest $40bn in AI - which is a lot of money - but not everyone seems to be ready to open the door. cnbc.com/2024/03/22/ant…

And now start of first full day of ⁦RAND⁩ board meeting. Lots on the agenda.

It’s a sad spectacle to watch.

It’s Kharkiv and Kyiv today. It could be Warzaw, Helsinki, Bucharest or Stockholm tomorrow. Defense against Putin 🇷🇺 is a European both necessity and obligation.

There is clearly a need for more Patriot batteries to defend 🇺🇦 against the 🇷🇺 ballistic missive onslaught. At least six more are needed. Now. Can 🇪🇺 nations step up?

That’s very worrying. In a massive attack 🇷🇺 seems to have seriously damaged the largest power plant in the Kyiv 🇺🇦 region. Going after power production with sustained ballistic missile attacks has been the 🇷🇺 focus the last few weeks.

This will be a gamble. There are hardly any conditions for 🇺🇦🇷🇺 peace talks now, so it’s a question of building up support for the principles that must guide such talks when they become possible. Attendance will be crucial, and 🇨🇳 the most interesting. reuters.com/world/europe/s…

Parliamentary elections in 🇰🇷 delivers a significant blow to President Yoon. Will this impact on his ability to go forward with his policies with deeper 🇰🇷🇯🇵🇺🇸 cooperation? koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/202…

With huge deficits and rapidly rising debt the long term financial outlook for the 🇺🇸 economy looks somewhat scary - but so far no one seems to care, or even take an interest. It’s strange. cbo.gov/publication/59…

There is no denying that the Biden administration 🇺🇸 has been successful in building different trilateral networks of security in Asia. It’s not really about containing 🇨🇳 old style, but about anchoring stability better for the future.

As the leaders of 🇺🇸 and 🇯🇵 meet here today there will be much talk about the reinforced strategic partnership, but at the same time the administration in a protectionist move is trying to stop the ⁦Nippon Steel⁩ acquisition of iconic US Steel. reuters.com/markets/deals/…

There is now a risk of widespread famine causing widespread death in Gaza according to this latest detailed @CrisGroup report.

It’s spring - bordering on early summer - in Washington 🇺🇸. Delightful.

Yes, but it’s also fairly obvious that the 🇺🇸 administration is increasingly upset with the policies and practices of the present 🇮🇱 government.