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Secret #22: You can time the real estate market, and expertise counts. Stock pundits say, "You can't time the market" and "Passive investment vehicles that track the indexes outperform active managers." Both statements are backed up by data. With real estate, neither of these

There's a big divide between what investors want and what's available. Investors, both big and small, want deals--deals with some distress, a great basis, and a value-add story. It should also be in one of the hot Sunbelt markets and ideally built in the 90s or later. Oh, it

Multifamily deals are heating up. Activity’s spiking across markets. Underwriting’s wild—NOI leaps with disappearing concessions, shrinking cap rates, soaring rent growth. Possible in 3 yrs, but not today in high-supply spots. Basis looks great, but realistic capital pairing?

Thank you to Joe Fairless for having me on the Best Ever CRE Show. On the podcast, I share how we transitioned from working at a $30B institutional fund manager to launching Calvera Partners in 2010. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ren…

Property taxes across the RDU area have been reset—and the differences between counties are stark. We’re underwriting a deal in Durham County where the assessed value surged 100%+ over four years. In Orange County, another property’s assessed value climbed only 28% versus the

Little “a” affordability is getting more airtime lately. There are compelling incentives to keep workforce housing at affordable rent levels—80% or 60% of AMI. Better pricing on agency financing and/or full and partial property tax abatements. Self-restricting rents can unlock

With the spotlight on 2000s-and-newer multifamily acquisitions, how long until ‘80s properties make a comeback? It’s a recurring cycle. The market craves new, core, low-risk assets. Few buyers land their dream deal; most strike out. So, they pivot—to older properties, fringe

Given all of the volatility in the stock and bond markets, my latest post for Calvera Partners is timely. calverapartners.com/why-real-estat…

Unless you need to refinance a loan, and can lock rate ASAP, today's market isn't good for much. Perhaps if you're under contract on an acquisition, the current yield may have gotten better thanks to the recent drop in rates. But, what about the growth prospects? The odds of a

With all of the volatility in the stock and bond markets, diversification is looking more important. Everyone knows they should do it, but when the S&P goes up 20%+ a year for the past few years, diversification can end up on the back burner. While real estate still has some

A 50bp move up in the 10yr UST to ~4.38% since April 4th and the market freaks out. It's still below the January high of 4.8% and in line with Nov/Dec 2024 levels. Just like any other investment, uncertainty creates challenges. Investors will delay new acquisitions and they

So many multifamily deals that we see today have a "gain" to lease...meaning, the in place rents are higher than today's market rents. This makes sense. Rents spiked in 2021 and many were able to reset their rent rolls higher. Then, a supply wave in 2024 increased competition

The spread between vintage deals (even if well located) and new(ish) construction remains wide. It's music to my ears to hear brokers suggest a stabilized 6.5% cap on vintage properties. With agency debt around 5% for deals that have a high workforce component, that's potential

What sort of cushion does an investor need to have for interest rates when underwriting a new multifamily deal today? Daily 10bp swings up and down make it difficult to plan when you have to factor in a negotiating period, due diligence time, and the closing stretch. That's

When do owners of small apartment properties often out-smart bigger operators... ...when there's a vacancy. We’re told that owning a 200-unit property is better than owning a 20-unit one. Bigger assets come with economies of scale—and one vacant unit barely registers. But at a

Why isn’t capital rushing out of the Sunbelt and into the Midwest and coastal markets for multifamily? The latest rent stats say that’s where rents are growing the most. Because pivoting is hard. If you’re not physically located, or don’t have a history in those markets, you

Conviction. It's a word that gets thrown around a lot in investing. Everybody says they have conviction, but do they really? I saw a post over the weekend where someone said, "If you're only 50% of the way in, you're 100% of the way out." You're either in or you're out. We

We've been underwriting smaller apartment deals again. The market for those deals can either be super inefficient, or you get the random 1031-buyer who blows everyone out of the water. But the mis-priced deals can be really significant. After years of owning everything from

Since when did AAR (average annual return) become a thing? I've seen this in so many syndicator pitch books lately, and I don't get it. Is IRR too complicated? Is your deal's IRR too low and you need another metric that's higher? Can someone get in and out of your deal like a

I've been wondering lately how many multifamily sponsors are tied to Sunbelt markets only. The Sunbelt had the strongest growth trajectory over the past ~5 years. It also has the deepest dive in rents at the moment. Looking at RealPage, Inc. data, the Sunbelt is projected to