Lessons from this cycle - 1) Liquidity drives markets 2) Monetary policy works with a lag 3) Stocks discount the future 4) What matters is the return over full cycle 5) Time to be greedy is during Stage 2 6) Stocks should be sold during Stage3 7) No buying/longs during Stage 4

For those who don't know already: The huge increase in # of shares of $BOIL and $UNG is not due to retail traders; it is pros (HFs etc) who request the shares to sell them short. Same game they played with $USO in 2020. Epic short squeeze awaits.. #natgas ft.com/content/b527f4…

Looking at the #natgas chart in the last decade, it had 4 prominent bottoms. It stayed in the pit for about half a year on avg before getting out. So I won't be surprised if #naturalgas does the same thing this year. The market needs time to build the bottom. $ung $boil $kold

Taking a closer look at 2008, when the ferociousness of the crash was comparable. #natgas crashed 82% over 429 days, then rebounded 152% over 125 days, a 30% retracement. This year, the magnitude has reached the target of 80%. Duration? not there yet. $ung $boil $kold

Forget about what you think you know about #natgas and the ETFs. Starting Monday, $2.3 billion of May futures will be rolled into June & July contracts over 6 days. That's about half the open interest of May including $500mm of swaps.

Bearish Natgas Price Action For DUMMIES We warned investors that even Lower #Natgas prices were coming. We hoped some listened, but many did not and likely Doubled-Down on Catching the Falling Knife. Get ready for SUB $2, and maybe even $1 Natgas. srsroccoreport.com/why-subscribe/

#natgas I spent a bunch of time attempting to explain the $BOIL and $KOLD roll over that's happening this week in a series of about 12 tweets at this link, if anyone is interested checking it out. I always welcome questions and challenges x.com/DiveBomb321/st…

For those of you who are wondering why $boil and $kold doesn’t achieve 2x of the #natgas futures performance today. They have completed the roll and are tracking the July contract now (priced at 2.63), which is less volatile than the front month May contract (priced at 2.28).

To better understand $Boil ☯️you must also understand $Kold. $Ung #Natgas

1~hr #NatGas UPDATE -.73% as it moved to Hidden Resistance while Ovr-Bght building a Negative Divergence. I expect a digestive pause that may be a day longer than most people expect before heading higher. $Ung $BOIL

Updated the bull and bear thesis table as of 20 Apr for #natgas fundamentals for your easy reference. Comment if you think of anything else I should add to the cheat sheet or have any thoughts to discuss. $ung $boil $kold $ng

In this week's COT report, managed money net sold #natgas contracts. However, the overall COT index shows a slight increase, largely due to commercial players' (Producer/Merchant/Processor) increase in long positions. $ung $boil $kold

$kold shorts added 1MM shares yesterday (1.5mm to 2.5mm). Huge increase. O/S shares bottomed at 1mm on May 3 which was a 12 mth low. The last time they did this was when kold bottomed at $41 on Mar. 3 (after being over $80). So, not a cause for celebration for #natgas bulls. Yet.

UPDATE 2-US natgas futures climb 4% as producers drop rigs The gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by 16 to 141 in the week to May 12, the lowest since April 2022. $UNG $BOIL $KOLD #NaturalGas finance.yahoo.com/news/1-us-natg… via Yahoo Finance

#natgas Top of the channel on the August contract

Quick shoutout to the good people at Universal Pictures for trimming the trees that gave our picket line shade right before a 90+ degree week.

#natgas

#natgas In case you missed this helpful table, I recommend bookmarking it. $UNG starts it's roll from the Feb to the March contract on Tuesday and finishes on Friday. It's important to know what contract your ETF is trading as evidenced by $BOIL's performance this week.

But a time is coming and has now come when the true worshipers will worship the Father in spirit and in truth, for the Father is seeking such as these to worship Him. John 4:23