Powell will probably relent on rates after Trump announces a few more trade deals. Inflation’s at 2% and more trade deals will take tariff pressure down a notch.
The US doesn’t have to do anything other than sit back, share some intel and watch Israel continue to dismantle the Iranian regime. Trump the peacemaker can say he showed restraint and indirectly achieve the same outcome.
Iran defanged -> oil prices drop -> inflation drops -> time for a rate cut?
That oil prices would DROP after Israel/US neutralized Iran’s offensive capabilites suggests there has been an “Iranian risk premium” built into ME oil prices, which also could explain why other local
The world (and many younger Americans) are in the process of learning exactly how powerful the US is both militarily and economically. Dems spent decades behaving like Lilliputians tying the US down. No longer - Trump cut the cords. Golden Age incoming.
The ceasefire *increases* the probability of a popular uprising in Iran. When the dust settles, Iranians will realize 1) Israel decimated the various military units that oppressed them and 2) no one else is going to do it for them. Give it time. It will happen.
Note that he treats Israel & Iran as equals. Trump is very good at optically propping up the bad guys at the expense of good guys to keep a deal in place.