Remember that old guy who was arrested? "In the moments after Charlie Kirk was killed, a 71-year-old man yelled to police officers that he was the shooter, but he later explained that he had falsely confessed in order to help the real assassin escape" nytimes.com/2025/09/16/us/…

Two recent updates to our “Labor Market Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence” paper: we find wages for GenAI exposed jobs are increasing (using OES, Lightcast/Burninglass data) while jobs/vacancies are unaffected. Canada’s adoption of GenAI tools is half that of the US.

Who makes the data center $BAC

Here's what Trump needs to do to the H-1B: Compensation ranking. Take the applications in a given year and go down the list from highest to lowest salary, let in the people paid the most. Doing this would almost double the economic value of the program while killing scams!

The gross margin of Lennar—a giant homebuilder ranked No. 129 on the Fortune 100—just hit a 16-year low In order to maintain sales in this weaker housing market environment, Lennar spent an average of 14.3% of the final sales price on sales incentives in Q3 2025.

The H-1B has huge problems and high-skilled immigration supporters shouldn’t pretend it doesn’t. It’s been used far too much for middling talent, wage arbitrage, and downright fraud. But that doesn’t make the $100k fee a good solution: 1. Outsourcers can just avoid the fee by

Not only do the well-to-do account for the bulk of consumer spending (I showed this in the post last weekend), but they also account for the bulk of the personal savings. Those households in the top one-fifth of the income distribution have had a rock-solid double-digit saving

Apollo’s Torsten Slok on US inflation: “72% of the CPI components are growing faster than the Fed’s 2% inflation target” #economy #inflation #markets #inflation

Argentina is a systemically important U.S. ally in Latin America, and the Treasury Department stands ready to do what is needed within its mandate to support Argentina. All options for stabilization are on the table. 1/4

The same author, with a co-author, just published another paper which further strengthens the conclusion of that study using an information-provision experiment. They find that, if you manipulate the beliefs of voters on the CDU's position on immigration to make them believe that

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem signals he may need to see continuing weakness in the labor market to justify additional cuts. Musalem: I supported the decision to cut last week “as a precautionary move” intended to support a full employment labor market. Policy is

American kids were improving across the board during the widely derided No Child Left Behind era but everyone hated it so we shifted into a new paradigm for the past decade where everyone does worse. slowboring.com/p/american-stu…

Lennar is showing you what has to happen in the housing market to drive sales. They've cut prices 22%. And are now below pre-pandemic pricing. The result? Sales orders have spiked. Lennar's margins have compressed to 17.5% as a result of the price cuts. But that's just how it

#Newmark’s latest paper examines The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), highlighting real-world examples of its impact on multiple CRE sectors, what it means for investors and occupiers and perspective on how to navigate the road ahead. Read here: nmrk.re/4mp2B3H #CRE

This is the thing about Chinese industrial policy: it is Darwinian in a way that most western attempts at industrial policy are not.

Inflation surged over the period 2021 to 2023 from a classic fiscal shock. Higher interest rates cannot lower a future inflation without coordinated fiscal policy, from John Cochrane nber.org/papers/w34257

The autism crisis is entirely fake. Not partially fake or exaggerated. It is 100% fake and made up. It does not exist. cremieux.xyz/p/whats-the-de…

Update: The Consumer Expenditure Survey is being delayed ~5 weeks, with no impact on the CPI weights, and for good technical reasons.

If you live in San Francisco, you’ve seen it or heard it: large groups on dirt bikes and ATVs taking over our streets and sidewalks. They ride without licenses, ignore the law, and terrorize our communities. For years, it felt like the city couldn’t—or wouldn’t—stop it. Now we

This is a real problem