Since beginning of 2022, economists have underestimated actual payroll releases in 25/31 months; also, survey’s response rate continues to bounce around, but trend for first-release response rate has been lower over past decade (blue in 2nd chart); July payroll report’s initial

At his Jackson Hole speech in August, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the time has come to start lowering rates, referring to the September meeting. Jeremy Schwartz and Jim Bianco discuss why they believe now is a good time to consider a dynamic index solution for

Me talking markets