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I sometimes wonder how much AI skepticism is driven by the fact that “AGI soon” would just be an enormous inconvenience for many, and that they’d therefore rather not think about it.

Ben Todd has written the best thing on how to plan your career given AI/AGI. Will thread. A very plausible scenario is salaries for the right work go up 10x over a ~decade, before then falling to 0. So we might be heading for a brief golden age followed by crazy upheaval. 1/

Huge repository of information about OpenAI and Altman just dropped — 'The OpenAI Files'. There's so much crazy shit in there. Here's what Claude highlighted to me: 1. Altman listed himself as Y Combinator chairman in SEC filings for years — a total fabrication (?!): "To

1. Guy A: if cases keep growing, we'll have a pandemic! 2. Guy B: [posts meme] 3. Both: [die in pandemic]

Safety evals after they show the new AGI is misaligned: Frog put the misaligned AI in a box. “There,” he said. “Now we won't have a misaligned AI.” “But we can open the box,” said Toad. “That is true,” said Frog.

Most white collar jobs involve a lot of messy tasks (ie dealing with people) that so far AI can't do. If you automate only the more routine ~30% of tasks, employment will typically be stable or even increase (like with radiologists).