Sad to be missing out on #AAPOR this year due to my pregnancy. Please tweet so I can live vicariously through y’all. Lots of great presentations this week from my colleagues Ipsos US.

Agreed. I also don’t see a lot of suggestions for replacement candidates that would actually have a better chance than Biden. If Biden steps down he has to be replaced by a single real person and not some hypothetical democrat.

This is wild to me. Eating out is partially about outsourcing your time with someone else’s labor. How should it be cheaper? Once you consider labor cost (although the workers are underpaid) it usually is a decent deal for me.

It will be very interesting to see if all the people who said they would not vote for Trump in polls will actually stop supporting him. I don’t think Trump’s 2024 chances are completely ruined yet though. But I doubt a conviction helps him.

Two new Ipsos polls on the Trump conviction. Thus far it seems like many Republicans may not care but maybe some independents might be affected by the ruling. The first is with Reuters: ipsos.com/en-us/majority… And the second is with ABC news: ipsos.com/en-us/trump-gu…

The whole financial influencer culture and meme stock phenomenon is intriguing to me. It seems like we need a better balance of free speech vs market manipulation or financial advice. wsj.com/finance/regula…

I’m on maternity leave. I’m going to be taking a break from social media as well. I’ll be induced the first week of July and and spending the few next weeks off to control my blood pressure and help baby girl grow.

In non-election news, I had my baby Hannah on 7/6 early. She is a little girl at 4 lb 10 oz and is spending some time in the NICU to catch up on growth but we are hoping she can come home soon. I’m recovering at home and visiting her every day.

Hurricane Milton is producing a significant tornado outbreak across Florida today, with a strong tornado reported near Fort Myers moments ago. 50 Tornado Warnings have already been issued today.

desmoinesregister.com/story/news/pol… The last Selzer Iowa poll is surprising. The last 2020 Selzer poll was very accurate but polling can be random. I still think the race is very close and could go either way.

I think overall anything can basically happen on Tuesday but I don’t think the polls will underestimate Trump at 2016 or 2020 levels. That would suggest a Trump landslide and will Trump has a shot at winning I doubt he will win the popular vote by multiple points.

TV is on, iPad is ready to check results and iPhone is ready to tweet. Baby will dictate how late we stay up but if she is going to keep me up at least I have results to pass the time. Votes are not counted randomly though so the winners and margins can change.

Also you have to wait for the right counties to complete. Votes are not counted randomly and you have to know what you are doing to project a winner based on a partial count.

Time to get on my Texas soap box. The big counties in Texas can sometimes count fast. There are a lot of rural votes that can take a while. Also Tarrant county is not a bellwether and I will die on that hill.

If I start chanting “live model” will WaPo’s turn on faster?

I feel like TX is going to get called for Trump soon after the final polls close in 10 minutes. Senate might take a little longer.

Trump has an advantage in NC but you shouldn’t call a swing state until you are 99% certain and we are not there yet. The NYT 80% chance feels about right.

My team at Ipsos Public Affairs is hiring a senior statistician. ecqf.fa.em2.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/Candidat…