Biggest House flip of the night thus far (along with NY-22 for the Democrats)

🚨 If this holds, Donald Trump has become the first Republican in 100 years to win Fall River, MA, a postindustrial city among the country's most Portuguese places (36%). 16% college, $53k median income. Shifted 36 points toward the GOP between 2012 and 2020

One race I'm keeping an eye on is MD-6. Between Trump's overperformance in the Northeast Corridor and any potential coattails of Hogan, Neil Parrott is virtually tied with April Delaney

Oh, a game-changer in North Carolina: the combination of Democrats winning the governorship & apparent results in legislative races will end GOP ability to do as they will in the state.

Suggests Dems are favored to win NV Sen on an otherwise grim night

And if DJT wins, then control of the presidency, Senate, and House will have all flipped

End of night update: county-demographic models showing big uphill battle for Harris in PA, MI, WI. Patterns consistent w/~ 5pp underperformance with Hispanic voters and 2-3pp shift nationwide. First GOP popular vote win since '04 looking quite likely.

These Michigan races still have not been called, & at this point it doesn't look like they will be before I head to bed, but as an update—Dems are still ahead by broad margins in both, are are likely to expand their majority on the state supreme court to 5-2.

In Ohio, though, Republicans swept the supreme court races & expected their majority on the supreme court to 6-1.

Democrats have flipped at least two congressional seats in New York (#NY19 & #NY22), and they've declared victory in a third GOP-held district (#NY4), in addition to defending #NY03 and #NY18.

FINAL: City of Dearborn results (includes the less Arab, West Dearborn portion as well) 🔴 Trump 43% 🔵 Harris 36% 🟢 Stein 18% 🔵 Slotkin 41% 🔴 Rogers 39% 🟢 Green candidate 15% City was 80% for Biden in 2020

Looking at the House, this is my best guess interpretation of what's left. Atm, the GOP's got 213 seats locked down, and are very clearly favored in at least 4 more. Democrats would need to clean up with EVERY other seats to flip the House. Realistically, that's not happening.