Arthur Spirling Christopher Barrie Lexi Palmer This is the paper I've been wanting to be able to cite!! Unfortunately my train doesn't get to Philly in time to make the panel; very much looking forward to seeing the working paper when it becomes available!!

Looking forward to presenting this! If you want sneak peak at the presentation, you'll find the slides here: cjbarrie.quarto.pub/replication-fo…

judging from this hotel I’m in, the sheer number of political scientists couldn’t have helped

I’ll try to engage— exactly how much “wronger” are the other models on offer? What’s the loss function and why? The critiques are saying this sort of precise calibration is ~impossible for an n=1 forecast. You can argue over whether it’s n=1, but that’s not Nate’s claim here FWIW

OK, well I guess it's as good a time as any to announce I'm looking for a postdoc at Princeton -- areas are politics, machine learning and statistics. Please share widely! puwebp.princeton.edu/AcadHire/apply…

Great to see everyone at LMiSS! Fantastic papers, discussions and chat. Appreciate Nick Pangakis and the UPenn crew for making this happen. arthurspirling.org/LMiSS/pages/ag…

boss STEM move naming your main square after a statistical property

Heath resisted calls to make UK road sign distances metric, yes

If you’re attending #APSA2024 today, feel free to join our panel on Navigating Political Narratives to hear from me and my incredible colleagues Allison Koh siyu liang Paulina García Corral Patrick Y. Wu. Thanks to Christopher Barrie Arthur Spirling for agreeing to be our discussants!

joke works in multiple dimensions

the APSA conference full name is “a Public Service Announcement” That’s what I told the security guard I was here for

very cool to see them honoring Gauss in Philly #APSA2024

A social-class based political system and the incredibly tedious “gotchas” it has wrought, was a mistake. Brings me no pleasure to tell you this.