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A famous paper by Lisa Cook claims that Black patents declined in 1900, and that this was caused by racial violence. However, the results immediately look suspicious. There is a full halving of patents in exactly 1900, after which the levels are stable at 1880 levels. This

This is interesting if true, but I'm not sure it is. I tried to replicate the US graph with GSS data and I'm not seeing it. Whether the gap is growing depends how seriously we take the last two points is a noisy series. But it's nowhere near 30 points.

Fun as can be, to dunk on Gen Z... It looks like the US result is an artifact of a huge outlier in 2022, after the sampling methodology changed. Here's what the young men time series looks like with 2022 dropped. Code available here: github.com/James-Traina/P…

Here's how I like to think about this (Don't read this thread if you want to answer the question first.)

If you want to understand Americans' policy preferences, this chart sums the entire thing up.

China became a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) on 11 December 2001. The effects cannot be more obvious. Yet experts keep telling us free trade is good.

Ok here are my go-to papers for making small talk with smart non-econs. (Yes, I am exactly as uncool as maintaining this list would imply.)

Capital One buying Discover is a big deal. First thoughts: 1. This is going to hurt Mastercard (their big 3 are Citi, BoA, Cap One iirc). For a long time that relationship was so close they shared a building on 5th Avenue. 2. Discover is a 3-party network. Meaning: their

Standard Brownian motion started at a positive value will eventually hit 0. Let’s stop this by adding a positive drift: dXₜ = dBₜ + μ(Xₜ)dt We try μ equal to A: 1/√X B: 1/X C: 1/X² These all go to ∞ as X→0. But which grow sufficiently fast to stop X from reaching 0

Matthew Yglesias Americans really don't care about climate change. It has always been a proxy for other political agenda. I doubt even Elon Musk cares about climate change.

Suppose you want to test the "hot hand" fallacy: if you flip an H, are you likely to flip another H? You flip a coin 3 times, then count the % of times a H is followed by another H On average across sequences, you're likely to conclude that T is 1/6 more likely than H after H

I find this clear now, like so (argument discovered by others such as Noah Snyder and Julian; I am only reframing or rewording it):

This is terrifying. Thoughts with everyone in Nebraska.

Price of escort by eye color:

Two basic concepts are often conflated: Sample Standard Deviation (SD) vs Standard Err (SE) Say you want to estimate m=𝔼(x) from N independent samples xᵢ. A typical choice is the average or "sample" mean m̂ But how stable is this? That's what Standard Error tells you: 1/6

Right now: VW stake in Porsche = 45 billion euros. VW stake in Traton = 14 billion euros. Total: 59 billion euros VW market cap: 46 billion euros VW's ownership of Audi, VW cars, Skoda, Seat, Cupra Lamborghini, Bentley and Ducati: free (We're long $VWAPY)

Matrix nearness problems arise often: Given matrix A, what’s the closest matrix that is, say, symmetric, positive definite, orthogonal, or bi-stochastic? Symmetry: There are many ways to symmetrize A: e.g. √AᵀA For unitarily invariant norms, closest Aₛ = (Aᵀ + A)/2 1/5

I’m surprised that the partisan gap on video games is so large

Here's a quick 🧵on how New York Democrats used lawfare & raw power to force a mid-decade redistricting in NY that allowed them to pick up 4 new House seats in NY winning 19/26 seats (73%) while Kamala Harris was only winning 55% of the vote statewide 👇 1/