Two major macro trends since 1980: - Rising markups - Declining business dynamism By now, it’s accepted that market power killed dynamism. Ryan Decker and I find that the industry data tells a completely different story. Conventional wisdom => 🗑️? 🧵 on our updated paper

𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝙈𝙖𝙘𝙧𝙤𝙨𝙩𝙧𝙪𝙘𝙩𝙪𝙧𝙚… in this essay with Valentin Valentin Haddad we highlight common threads in exciting work that takes a down-to-earth view of financial markets: let’s focus on figuring out 𝘸𝘩𝘰 is doing 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 and 𝘸𝘩𝘺. Curious to hear comments.

States that depend on property & sales taxes typically tax poorer households at higher rates, even after transfers. Opposite goes for states that rely on income taxes. Explore the map & many insights from our recent staff report by Jonathan Heathcote and co-authors:

My excellent and much-awaited Conversation with Gregory Clark: conversationswithtyler.com/episodes/grego…

We are pleased to announce that on February 19, 2025, Professor Oded Galor was awarded an Honorary Doctorate from Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń. Professor Galor is renowned for his pioneering contributions to economic theory, particularly his unified theory of growth.

New paper with Paul Beaudry (UBC Economics) and Paolo Cavallino (Bank for International Settlements). In it, we argue that monetary policy may be driving secular trends in real interest rates because very persistent rate changes have only weak effects on activity [1/7]

Historians usually attribute the origin of European colonialism in Asia and Africa to ethnicity of the actors or uneven power. “Origins of Colonialism” highlights the role of the environment.

Our new Economic Letter provides new evidence of monetary policy perceptions by the public, using both surveys and financial market data. Huge thanks to my coauthors Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam.

Good snow and even better papers @ Second Annual Jackson Hole IFM Workshop with Oleg Itskhoki Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan Hanno Lustig fabrizio perri Sanjay R Singh Ariel Burstein George Alessandria

We are looking forward to the 10th Annual West Coast Workshop in International Finance at Santa Clara University this Friday. Program can be found here: sanjayrajsingh.github.io/CFP/Agenda_WCW…

Happy to see this paper forthcoming at the JFE! We argue that the persistent increase in dollar strength is driven by global saving and foreign asset demand, less so by interest rate policy alone. Alas, perhaps all of this will have to be revised by what just happened in market.

Something something Gibson’s paradox

New episode! Luca Fornaro on Hysteresis, Endogenous Growth, and Aggregate Demand Polices Luca Fornaro and David Beckworth analogize how the phenomenon of hysteresis impacts an economy.

This quote from David Beckworth is perfect to motivate a new wave of research on the macroeconomics of the medium run.

Retirement party for our colleague Colin Cameron #clusteringHimalayas

📢 Workshop on 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗕𝗲𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗼𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗠𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼 at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 🌁 San Francisco, October 27, 2025 🚨 Keynote speaker: Yuriy Gorodnichenko 📆 Submission deadline: July 31, 2025 ➡️ Full CfP: treinelt.github.io/files/CfP_Expe… Yeji Sung Sanjay R Singh

A great privilege to talk with Paul Krugman about the dollar and all that. open.substack.com/pub/paulkrugma…

SF Fed: In July 2024, nearly 70% of the labor force resided in a state with accelerating unemployment, slightly below the 75% mark associated with recession calls In June 2025, only the District of Columbia exhibits accelerating unemployment (0.2% of the U.S. labor force)