Retail is a vol seller again. Record gamma supply (especially 0DTE) pins intraday movement and dampens shocks—but also loads the spring: a modest macro/earnings surprise can flip the surface and unpin prices quickly. That’s convexity.

Volatility tells us how wild the ride is. Momentum tells us which way the ride is actually going.

The $SPX uptrend is still intact, but breadth and momentum divergences into historically weak September seasonality create a fragile, downside-skewed asymmetry unless the S&P 500 holds its nearby support band.

+ everyone’s “all in,” leverage is high, and positions are crowded.

The Fed’s revised statement is a clear hawkish shift: they’ve dropped language about tolerating inflation overshoots and committed to acting “forcefully” to keep expectations anchored at 2%, removing any implicit dovish bias. For stocks, this caps upside and raises downside

I tend to agree with this. September cut nod was a "velvet glove on an iron fist". No tolerance of future inflation overshoots. Somewhat inconsistent message as we might be in one already. x.com/MikeWShell/sta…

The rational investor is diligent, skeptical and appropriately risk-averse at all times, but also on the lookout for opportunities for potential return that more than compensates for risk. That’s the ideal. But in good times, we hear most people say, “Risk? What risk? I don’t

Why hasn’t Raja Jackson been arrested for assault or attempted murder? “They told me to hit him, and just leave,” Mr. Jackson said. But, he added, “I’m telling you, I’m going to hit him as many times as I can — watch.” share.google/u8k7ORhdJknL06…

Confidence doesn’t come first. Conviction does. When you deeply believe in your value proposition—what you do, how you do it, and the value it creates—confidence is inevitable. That’s how you stand out, win trust, and lead with authority.

A classic negative divergence: price higher, participation lower.

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