10Y Swap rate just 4bp shy of its march record with parrallel shift of the curve occuring after an hawkish sentiment following ECB meeting. Almost no effect on spreads as credit barely moves (understand tighten) today, at least on screen.

XOVER (EUR CDS HY) breaking multiyears low as inflows pouring into HY despite global turmoil. Good time to buy protection IMO.

Good example of how strong (complacent?) EUR credit market is. GM curve in USD and EUR EUR curve (below) much more tightened than the USD Nothing justifies this discrepancy as GM credit risk is about the same in the US or in Europe. Inflows in EUR IG is the main explanation

EUR Credit market morning analysis. Verizon coming to the market. I check both EUR and USD existing curve. USD curve is 40/50bp above EUR. Using Xccy yield, I can buy the USD 2032, hedge it in EUR and still get 17bp more than the EUR 2032. Why should one accept those spreads?

French government struggling to find €4bn in spending reduction. Meanwhile yearly interest on gvt debt set to increase by a whopping €40bn by 2029 (a whole % point in just 4 years). I guess France will need more than 4bn spending reduction...

POV. You are in a french supermarket and you have a choice. Either you support local farmers with tomatoes at €17.80/kg or you buy tomatoes from Morocco at €3.99/kg. This is nuts.

Mind the gap! Italy's and French 10Y spread narrowing at tightest in years! After 2 and a half year of Meloni's, that's quite impressive. Needless to talk about 2024 Macron's dissolution...

Once overlooked, defence sector now has its inaugural "Defence bond" with france's BPCE launching a 5yr senior with proceeds to finance "Eligible defence asset". Time passes but issuers always catching the latest trends to raise money. Might end up in ESG funds, why not? :)

Everybody talking about France but there is light at end of the tunnel! Look at peripherials spreads at lowest in years! BTP/Bund: 85bp, lowest since 2009 PGB/Bund 44bp: lowest since 2008 SPGB/Bund: 61bp lowest since 2021 (equals 2008 tights)

BPIFrance (french agency) issuing this morning with guidance at OAT +18bp, ending up at OAT +15bp for a €500Mn tap of existing 2035. Books> 3.2bn, decent demand given context

France 30y at 4.45%, 14 years high !! How is it compatible with an average 3.29% 25y mortgage for real estate loans? Interest rates to rise and real estate to suffer..

Interesting: French banks subs (except AT1) tightening against OAT. Here BNP Sub. Who's more reliable? Banks or french state?

Is ESG fading? 🧐 Japan Tobacco issued an € hybrid security that has been 15X oversubscribed with a record tight between hybrid/seniors spreads!! Even performed on secondary market 100.25/100.50!

I've said here many times. Regime change has come after Covid, when risk has shifted to gvt debt at the profit of corporates. Fiscal spending have made gvt debt far more risky and IG corp. are the new "safe assets"

French employer's federation (lobbying gvt policies) praising (among others) far right national rally is a first. This normalize LePen's policy and pave the way for future respectabilty in the french establishment.

In the next weeks, France's sovereign rating will be re-updated by the 3 majors rating agencies. They all have the same rating: AA- (with neg watch for S&P & Fitch). No matter the upcoming government, sovereing rating and spreads level will be the main compass for gvt's decisions

UK attracts record GBP140bn in books for a GBP 10bn Gilt sale with a 4.75% coupon. At a time of increasing deficits, gvts will have to find new ways to save money bc interests payments will skyrocket.

There is also a seasonnality for long bonds...

You feel it coming the LePen's government? OAT to widen

Everyone : "Dutch pension reform will annihilate ultra long term bonds demand i.e 30y bonds" Meanwhile Italy attracting 108bn in books for a 5bn 30y issue... Look at the numbers not the headlines.