Pockets of leverage are being exposed, with the Kospi now in freefall after a 50% gain this year. “There’s been a lot of buying on credit, especially those heavyweight stocks, with investors putting down only 30%-40% in margin deposit.” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

GS: We Assume Flows Through the Strait of Hormuz Start to Recover in 5 Days and Fully Recover by Mid-April

Rates markets signaling the ECB's next move is now a rate hike

How bad can macro get with >$100/bbl oil? BofA...

“We see no reason to actively add equity exposure at this time as risk/reward will improve from either price action or a path to de-escaltion forming:” Citi’s Kaiser. The oil VIX reached its highest level other than during COVID since 2010, but the S&P is still near record highs.

If the current prices hold until the close (Monday afternoon), today will be the biggest one-day rise in the history of crude oil futures trading (which began in the 1980s). (An argument could be made the Arab oil embargo of the 1970s produced larger one-day rises, but there was

JP Morgan basically saying no bottom yet in stocks. "The equity markets typically make a low at the point of the most negative sentiment, and we would not be surprised if that materializes this or next week."

BoA's Hartnett: On Corrections: corrections caused by exogenous shocks at time of excess bullishness typically end once: 1) the “oversold” trough (software, MAGS, private credit, bank loans, bitcoin), 2) the “overbought” sold (gold, semis, metals, EM, Europe, banks – see

Takaichi’s approval has started to decline. The question now is how long it will take before it falls below 30%, the level where Japanese PMs usually start facing serious resignation pressure.

BYD is examining options to enter competitive motorsport from the World Endurance Championship to Formula One, a move that would be a rare direct attempt by a Chinese manufacturer to take on a sport dominated by European and US teams. Read more: bloom.bg/4b2WM9V 📷: Lars

Crude Oil has to be impossible to trade right now Red = Transportation Secretary Chris Wright says the Navy escorted a ship through the Strait of Hormuz, -8.3% Blue = Social Media post deleted, +5.49% Green = repost below, potential mines in the Strait, +9.57%

BofA: Once a diverse index, the S&P 500 is now ~50% growth

BofA: Korea, Japan, Europe = greatest energy import exposure

Apollo's Torsten Slok: "The 10 biggest companies in the S&P 500 make up almost 40% of the index, and if Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX are added later this year, the concentration could approach 50%, see chart below. The bottom line is that the S&P 500 basically doesn’t offer much

All 7 members of the Magnificent Seven are down on the year and underperforming the S&P 500. Video: youtube.com/watch?v=2JSU5a…

🇨🇳 #China’s Economy Surprises With Rebound Even as War Risks Spread - Bloomberg bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Who’s right about Iran: Polymarket bettors or stock market traders? Chart via Bloomberg.

Big update on demand: Stock goes from up 2% to up 3%. Raised CY27 revenue to be about 7% higher than the Street. Specifics: Jensen now says through end of CY27 there is $1 trillion in demand for Rubin. Three weeks ago, he was saying CY26 was going to be better than $500B. My

PM Takaichi’s support has fallen 23.5% in 2.5 months. Disapproval has more than doubled from 15.0% to 35.9%. news.yahoo.co.jp/expert/article…

Nice jump in the EUR inflation swap today - fixed income markets pricing longer crisis than equity markets ?