Peekaboo's alright at first, but once you figure out the core mechanic the novelty wears off quick.

There is no statistical solution to the problem of causal inference from observational data, it requires good scientific & statistical judgement, & knowledge of the literature. Folks like short cuts (propensity scores, E values etc) to avoid hard thinking. Short cuts don’t exist.

Currently seeking PhD candidates to help me with exciting #ecologicalforecasting problems using Stan and #rstats ecogambler.netlify.app/opportunities/

Our paper on exploring methods for nowcasting (adjusting for reporting delays) norovirus cases last winter is out in PLOS Computational Biology journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/a…

Most rigorous ML paper

New pre-print from our team, led by Maria Tang Nowcasting cases and trends during the measles 2023/24 outbreak in England medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

Obviously because she’s the Multicolinearity to his Heteroskedasticity

Postdoc (Manchester, UK) Working on methods for “First Few X” studies in resource-limited contexts. with Thomas House, Lorenzo Pellis, Christopher Overton at Univ. of Manchester More details: iddjobs.org/jobs/working-o…

Outdoor Boys just quit youtube is life even worth living anymore?

CLOSING SOON: Non academic (London, UK) Permanent post as lead modeller in the Immunisation and Vaccine-Preventable Diseases Division for respiratory virus diseases. with Conall Watson, Jamie Lopez-Bernal at UK Health Security Agency More details: iddjobs.org/jobs/lead-mode…

all these people complaining about ai taking their jobs... why not just do what i did, and train yourself to instantly and accurately multiply vectors in 13,000-dimensional space?

Pleased our work forecasting the tripledemic winter has now been published: academic.oup.com/ije/article/54…

Moments like this make it all worthwhile

In the fall of 1972, President Nixon announced that "the rate of increase of inflation was decreasing". Probably the first time a sitting president used the 3rd derivative to increase the chances of reelection.

> be me > exponential curve supervisor > get to work > check-in on the curve > it’s sigmoid

eigenron