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Look forward to presenting, and listening to some great speakers, tomorrow afternoon!

Massive Congratulations to Finn Catling benebenve and @NeunMax, today’s Transfer Team for completing NCL-ACTS 800th Critical Care Transfer!! Thank you so much to all our staff who’ve made this incredible milestone possible! Arndt Melzer Riaz Aziz🇵🇰🇸🇦 UCLH Geoff Bellingan NECCTAR Team

Using data from 127134 emergency laparotomies, our new study nature.com/articles/s4174… moves beyond point predictions to show the uncertainty around estimates of mortality risk. Work with Jakob Mathiszig-Lee Ramani and imperial.ac.uk/people/stephen… in npj Digital Medicine npj Journals

Finn Catling John George K Jakob Mathiszig-Lee Ramani npj Digital Medicine npj Journals This is exactly why I think "personalised medicine" (whatever that means) can't ever precisely predict how *individuals* will fare. We can only say how a group of patients that look like the patient in front of us do, on average.

I'm super proud of the paper myself and Finn Catling co-first authored along with excellent supervision from Ramani and Professor Stephen Brett. Over 127,000 patients from NELA (also on Bluesky @rcoa-cri.bsky.social) used to create a novel mortality risk calculator. Open Access. nature.com/articles/s4174…

Great thread. Open code. Open tools. Clinicians who understand data, and how to put it into action, outside the narrow outdated 1990s model of publishing an epidemiology paper as a PDF and then walking away.

Nice paper, highlights challenges of risk prediction and communication. The visualisation that this model allows could really help in discussions with patients and colleagues. Admirable commitment to open source and data sharing. Congratulations to all involved!

A very elegant and clinically important modelling paper. “At work” we rely on the point estimates derived from the NELA score, making clinical decisions. But how does it influenced by missing values and how those result might change the point estimate? MohanBabu Muthuswamy SCCM Anesthesiology Section

New paper published in npj Digital Medicine highlighting uncertainty in emergency bowel surgery prediction models from S&C's Finn Catling Jakob Mathiszig-Lee Prof Stephen Brett and UCL's Ramani Find out more ⬇️ imperial.ac.uk/news/237135/hi…

What an informative (and pretty!) visualisation: steady-state CVP modelled as a function of position in the cardiac and respiratory cycles, plus the interaction between the two

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Braving the rain on the #artery22 run this morning! Bruce Guest ARTERY Society VascAgeNet

One of the reasons why point estimation is so fragile is that it provides useful information only in limited circumstances and the realized point estimate provides little to no information about whether or not those circumstances actually hold.

In a Bayesian trial investigating a safe and inexpensive treatment (statins in COVID-19), what probability of a beneficial effect would be enough to change your practice: a) 21-day organ support-free days, incorporating mortality as the worst outcome Danny McAuley Anthony Gordon

Me after learning about collider bias

A very generous write-up from the VPH Institute following my award vph-institute.org/news/vphi-best… Already looking forward to VPH2026!