GDP report doesn't change the story despite what appears to be a low print.

Nominal growth remains pretty strong and hasn't really changed much in the last few years despite higher rates.

Inflation remains too high.

Conditions do not align with the start of an easing cycle.

Futures are pricing in a significant rise in the container freight rate ahead to levels not that far off of the supply chain disruption period of '21.

Certainly not a good sign for traded goods inflation ahead. h/t Andreas Steno Larsen

Consumption well above forecast (even if growth a little slower in Q1) while business investment roughly at. Residential above trend (I don't have a forecast for this one)--but was on a downtrend before COVID.

This is your weekly reminder that the US labor market remains secularly tight.

IC stable in the couple year range. CC stable and where its been since last summer. Nothing moving. Suggests another decent employment report next week and certainly no recession. Sorry doomers.

Haven’t heard much about the Red Sea disruptions lately but ocean freight rates continue to rise:

In Spain, the #inflation isn't just sticky, it's headed the wrong way...

There is not a lot of urgency for most developed world central banks to shift to a swift easing cycle when unemployment remains near secular lows and inflation is still above target.

European UE data today ticked down to lowest in decades, creating little reason for rapid cuts.

Know the difference between a credit-driven cycle and an income-driven cycle. From Andy Constan's recent public report:

x.com/dampedspring/s…

Views update:
-US economy is fine under the hood
-Inflation is settling in too-high for the Fed
-Rate cuts should continue to get priced out of the first couple of years of the curve
-Supply will continue to weigh on the long end, drip drip dripping on term premia
-The USD is

Germany's #inflation rises to 2.4% in May from 2.2% in Apr while Core CPI remains unch at 3%. Uptick was driven by base effects related to the introduction of a cheap public-transportation ticket (so-called 49€ ticket), which pushed prices down 12 months ago. But also food price

Farmers will kill 4.2 million chickens after bird flu hits Iowa egg farm.

Traveling is not only discretionary but also highly levered to incomes/wealth. To those who claim consumption demand is weakening, I ask where?

Let’s just keep in mind that according to the Fed, conditions are “sufficiently restrictive”

There's still a major 'donut' effect throughout the northeast corridor where real estate prices in cities are growing much slower than in their suburbs—and it's absolutely brutal how high home price growth has been in suburban MA/NH/CT/NY/NJ over the last year

Heat building up in SW Europe might touch 40C in Seville 🇪🇸 on the last day of spring.

Once this might have impressed but not anymore.

The policy choices made about unauthorized workers by the next US administration will be one of the most important determinants of whether inflation becomes entrenched.

Polls suggest broad affinity to not just restrict new arrivals but shrink the number of unauthorized workers.

“but what if machines take all of our jobs”

they already have

Negotiated wage growth in the eurozone ticked back up in the first quarter, boosting the recovery in purchasing power - but providing an uneasy sign for the ECB ahead of its first rate cut since 2019
think.ing.com/snaps/stubborn…

They use a word called 'declinism' in this piece to explain why people hate everything, which is the idea that 'the world keeps getting worse. It’s often the natural result of rosy retrospection or the idea that everything... looks better in memory than it did at the time. This

H5N1 bird flu found at 7 more dairy farms, including 3 in South Dakota, 2 in Michigan and 2 in Colorado. This is the biggest one-day increase so far.