If you followed me at the beginning of the year - I had been sharing some of our team's thoughts on gold. For the past two years we begin strategically trimming fixed income in favor of gold. x.com/ConnorCarew/st… x.com/ConnorCarew/st… x.com/ConnorCarew/st…

Still learning a ton but in my decade of finance - the top of the top down process should start with understanding global liquidity. Seems like Japan just poured gasoline on a forest fire.

I think we are in the early innings of seeing more interest in trimming US overweights in institutional portfolios. Less to do with doubt about exceptionalism of US companies, more to do with weakening dollar and trade deficits.

Someone on Twitter shared this screen and I look at it everyday. BDC is flashing something is awry while credit spreads still sit decently tight.

Continual signs that we are running HOT HOT. Spending a lot of time putting together a frame work on how to evaluate this macro regime that really started a few years. Source: RBC and Bloomberg

Not just about spending (not denying that is a problem as well) - underappreciated that debt interest is adding ~1tn a year. Makes the Fed's job very challenging with interest rate policy.

70s rhyme with today: Instead of a supply shock its a demand shock (AI Compute / electrification)

Central bank intervention has created a generation of volatile investors (leverage kills / poor risk management). Markets were down two and change on Friday and futures may open lower Monday… Yet everyone wishes they lived in the 80s Wall Street…

I've certainly tweeted about it enough...

Seems to be in same trend with tight public credit spreads.

Need to do an updated thread on opportunity set in international equities. Interesting EPS data for 26e in Eurozone from JPM.

Fiscal easing in EM could continue to support equity performance in the region. source: JPM

Baller!! Can’t wait to watch Ez