Since cyclone mocha has faded away we will continue to see hot weather for the next few days. As for monsoon, it has reached Andaman and Nicobar islands. Progression towards Kerala is likely to be sluggish.

As for June, Kerala/ Coastal Karnataka is likely to see a very wet June after 2018. Monsoon is most likely to make onset by June 1st week itself. Since MJO suppression phase is seen over Arabian sea, system formations are unlikely (which could have hindered monsoon) .

Models indicating an onset vortex like feature off lakshadweep by June first week. Since MJO will make a comeback over Indian Ocean by June 5th, possible strong westerly wind burst should be watched with caution as it can induce extreme rains over Kerala. #SWM2023

Will 2018 Type #Keralarains will Happen Again ? what do you think ? #KeralaStory

This year Northwest India may experience below normal rains during #SWM2023. The unusually low temperatures over Northwest India during summer does not allow the proper setting of monsoon low. Also El nino years are known for monsoon systems tracking towards central India.

Although june rains failed miserably for Kerala (large scale suppression prevailed for most of June), One strong surge of westerly winds seen approaching Kerala by July 3rd. Northward propagation of convection associated with MJO will increase chances for robust monsoon rains.

Heavy rains currently at Kochi🌧️, It is expected to continue at least till 7th. Entire west coast is likely to benefit from this surge(Kerala/Karnataka, goa from 3rd - 8th and Maharashtra,Gujarat from 7th - 9th) #keralarains #mumbairains #karnatakarains

Watch out for landslides and localised flooding events over ghat areas of Kerala and Karnataka from Tomorrow - 7th July as strong westerly winds can produce extremely heavy rainfall. People staying near streams/creeks must be vigil and avoid travelling to hill stations. #Monsoon

Bands have moved in over Kerala and more to form tonight, with significant numbers (bands seen stuck over ghat areas) coming Kottayam/Pathanamthitta district,water level in rivers may also rise accordingly. The rains will also intensify over north KL by tonight. #keralarains

Coastal Karnataka has also started to join the party, heavy rains continuing over Mangalore and adjoining areas, more in store for Kerala and Coastal Karnataka for the next three days. #karnatakarains #monsoon2023

Ghat areas of Kodagu, Talakaveri, bhagamandala, wayanad, idukki, Pathanamthitta should be on alert as westerly wind penetration seems getting strong by tomorrow, these areas might experience VH - XH rains in the coming days. #Karnataka #Kerala

Another low-pressure area seen forming over bay by July mid. With MJO in phase 5/6, WPAC may also throw circulations strengthening monsoon surge. Let's see how much this pattern favours peninsular west coast. #Kerala #karnataka

This is so relatable bruh😂

Asperitas🥶