Arjun Pandian T ๐ŸŒ (@arjun1224) 's Twitter Profile
Arjun Pandian T ๐ŸŒ

@arjun1224

Dad/Son/Husband | Quant | Economics / Finance | IIT-IIM Alum | My Tweets are Opinions | Risk Management | Ex-Prop Trading | Ex Oil&Gas | Ex-Entreprenuer

ID: 385604385

linkhttps://www.instagram.com/arjunpandiant/?hl=en calendar_today05-10-2011 19:57:47

4,4K Tweet

738 Takipรงi

3,3K Takip Edilen

Arjun Pandian T ๐ŸŒ (@arjun1224) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Many economies seem to be not really ready for the rate hikes. For Japan contrarily I believe the economy needs to reinvent itself again this time focusing on new emerging arenas, to work its way away from stagflationary scenario. #ratehike #inflation

Arjun Pandian T ๐ŸŒ (@arjun1224) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Risk function is an exponential function, I wouldnโ€™t be surprised if the depreciation accelerates its pace every passing day !!! #Rupee #depreciation

Arjun Pandian T ๐ŸŒ (@arjun1224) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Something is totally off here !!! With political instability - country risk seems to be going up. But the series of events is baffling.

Arjun Pandian T ๐ŸŒ (@arjun1224) 's Twitter Profile Photo

I am kind of for the recent increase in GST across a spectrum of goods, is because otherwise the current tax burden on the middle class would have increased heavily thereby leaving demand/money multipliers partially paralysed. Future GST hikes preferable over tax hike. #GSThike

Arjun Pandian T ๐ŸŒ (@arjun1224) 's Twitter Profile Photo

#Starlink or any similar technology being restricted/delayed by countries in the name of protectionism would prove very costly economically (especially to service oriented economies), because the ones with the technology would outgrow economically by skilling faster. #india

Arjun Pandian T ๐ŸŒ (@arjun1224) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Now that FED has delivered such massive hikes, and currently with a Dovish tone - I have this hunch the fed is going to go up another 125basis to 3.5% by year end. So when is RBI planning to deliver equivalent massive rate hikes !!! - against inflation at play. #rbi #ratehike

Arjun Pandian T ๐ŸŒ (@arjun1224) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Yup I had this feeling when Russians soldiers entered Ukraine !!! In the end the ones who would be paying the price would be the Soldier and the Poor people across the world. Guess which country has the most number of poor people ! #NotAnotherWar

Arjun Pandian T ๐ŸŒ (@arjun1224) 's Twitter Profile Photo

So how long before the emerging economies plan to hike the interest rates ? I can feel the inflation around me going up. Currency stability is key and so is controlling inflation a priority. Waiting to see the quantum of next rate hike policy from RBI ! #RBI #ratehike

Arjun Pandian T ๐ŸŒ (@arjun1224) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Based on my observation, Interest rates are bound to go up and stay up for an extended period of time as the inflation would take a while to settle. Sure high interest rates would be stressful, but this should ensure a sustainable growth in the long term. #ratehike #inflation

Arjun Pandian T ๐ŸŒ (@arjun1224) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Give the global hawkishness, with central bank rate hikes ranging till > 3.5% in developed economies, RBI hopefully does series of more rate hikes in line with global CBs to get a grip on the inflation, liquidity, currency and Bond Markets. #RepoRate #RBI

Arjun Pandian T ๐ŸŒ (@arjun1224) 's Twitter Profile Photo

I see people drawing various conclusions based on just 1year of FX moment, here is for 10years across 4 pairs - now make your own conclusions. #USDINR

I see people drawing various conclusions based on just 1year of FX moment, here is for 10years across 4 pairs - now make your own conclusions. 

#USDINR
Arjun Pandian T ๐ŸŒ (@arjun1224) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Inflation is a regressive tax, and so are increasing taxes like GST which amplifies the regressive impact. It might sound counterintuitive but more likely that increasing interest rates would decrease inequality and is progressive -amplified by progressive taxing. #tax #ratehike

Arjun Pandian T ๐ŸŒ (@arjun1224) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Dejavu ! - in a much more amplified manner !, probably because information travels a lot faster and lot far today than back then. #irrationalexhuberance

Arjun Pandian T ๐ŸŒ (@arjun1224) 's Twitter Profile Photo

My expectation largely for Year 2023 - markets to see many Earnings-Margin contractions thus calming animal instincts, increasing commodity, hawkish European & Developing central banks, at-last decreasing inequality/house prices/rentals & a bit of inflation. #inflation #ratehike

Arjun Pandian T ๐ŸŒ (@arjun1224) 's Twitter Profile Photo

I believe - for the past few decades, as the interest rates eased year on year, people were incentivised to take risk. Going forward with increasing interest rates, people would/should be incentivised to manage/control risk. #riskmanagement #Finance #ratehike

Arjun Pandian T ๐ŸŒ (@arjun1224) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Damn thatโ€™s just signalling they have lagged a bit more behind the curve that they would like. Anyways this is good news for many folks. Definitely doesnโ€™t mean the earnings in the street is going to go up, but rather because a lagged effect towards stable earnings to come.