Alex Siow (@alexsiowsy) 's Twitter Profile
Alex Siow

@alexsiowsy

gas & LNG outlook, forecast. Lead gas analyst for ICIS, all thoughts are my own

ID: 1633295901815894022

calendar_today08-03-2023 02:38:04

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Alex Siow (@alexsiowsy) 's Twitter Profile Photo

ICIS EAX (spot LNG price for North Asia markets) has been sub $15 for 2 weeks now. Over the period, we have seen Indian buyers, Chinese NOCs and third-party and even South American buyers into the spot market. And PTTEP continues to buy.. #lng #eax #ttf

Alex Siow (@alexsiowsy) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Latest PipeChina shows that by Oct-22, Wen-23 (the largest gas storage in China) reached 4.6bcm - a 71% leap compared to Oct-21. More to grow.

Alex Siow (@alexsiowsy) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Just completed ICIS 1st Lunch Briefing in Singapore today, where we had analysts flying in from London, Shanghai speaking on global LNG. EU may have adapted to a new normal, bearish on Japan+S.Korea, Pakistan and Bangladesh, limited upside on India muted growth on China.#lng #ttf

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More Russia gas into China? Absolutely. Set for 38bcm by 2025 (PoS1), it is now 98bcm by 2030- a short 5yrs gap. The big one, PoS2@50bcm, still has many finer details to work out such as- dqt, nomination etc. Will China become another EU in a decade time? #gas #ttf #china #russia

Alex Siow (@alexsiowsy) 's Twitter Profile Photo

A lookback on ICIS LNG Analytics calling out a 9mT global oversupply on the 1st Jan '23, versus our 1st March update where it has tightened to 2.7mT oversupply. Spot LNG prices have indeed halved from Jan to March. What will the latest April update brings us? #ttf #lng #eax #gas

A lookback on ICIS LNG Analytics calling out a 9mT global oversupply on the 1st Jan '23, versus our 1st March update where it has tightened to 2.7mT oversupply. Spot LNG prices have indeed halved from Jan to March. What will the latest April update brings us? #ttf #lng #eax #gas
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ICIS see LNG market oversupplied in 2023. The May’s run of our LNG Supply&Demand Forecast shows the market to be 6mT long this year. Last month the length was 2mT. Weak demand signals and high storages levels in Europe and Asia. Downward pressure on #TTF until the end of summer

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LNG Pacific & Atlantic tightness. The red circles, is where Pacific supply will rescue the tightness in the West. Not physical shipping but through optimisation/swaps etc. Also showing purple circles - tightness on both sides. #TTF and #EAX at $8-9+ today, is the worst behind us?

LNG Pacific & Atlantic tightness. The red circles, is where Pacific supply will rescue the tightness in the West. Not physical shipping but through optimisation/swaps etc. Also showing purple circles - tightness on both sides. #TTF and #EAX at $8-9+ today, is the worst behind us?
Alex Siow (@alexsiowsy) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Everything we know of LNG about tightness, Russia gas, energy crisis, expensive TTF etc will be completely over-turned by 2026 when 121mtpa (FID'ed projects) flood the global market. #ttf #lng #oversupply

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#TTF is at $13/mmbtu+ today, breaking above double-digit when it was below $7 just last week. It is once again, leading Asia spot price #EAX (jkm) by its nose. Are we out of the woods yet? Barely any new supply, only demand (Europe, China, global south) fluctuation.

Alex Siow (@alexsiowsy) 's Twitter Profile Photo

How did US (or any other supplier) flow in 2022? At ICIS, our latest basin tightness model assumed last year's flow and we managed to get a glimpse of whether Atlantic/Pacific will be taking charge this winter. How can such flow model assist in trading decision? #lng #gas #icis

How did US (or any other supplier) flow in 2022? At ICIS, our latest basin tightness model assumed last year's flow and we managed to get a glimpse of whether Atlantic/Pacific will be taking charge this winter. How can such flow model assist in trading decision? #lng #gas #icis
Alex Siow (@alexsiowsy) 's Twitter Profile Photo

-ICIS expect the coming winter to be tight for a prolonged period from Nov-23 to May-24.(Expect a price rally or sustained period of higher prices?) -EAX could be leading TTF in the months of Sep-23, Jan-24 & Mar-24: Atlantic basin is less tight compared to the Pacific.#ttf #lng

Alex Siow (@alexsiowsy) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Off Chevron workers strike, we have cut the entire output for the later two weeks of Sept resulting in 0.7mT loss at Gorgon & 0.44mT at Wheatstone. ICIS now expects the global LNG market to be 4.8mT short in H2 2023. Last month we forecast the market to be 1.3mT short. #lng #ttf

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Still time to register for ICIS in-person LNG briefing in Singapore next Tuesday. Will speak about #lng from a global and regional perspective. #ttf #eax #gas #icis

Tom Marzec-Manser (@tmarzecmanser) 's Twitter Profile Photo

This free webinar is next week! ⤵️ How is the global #natgas winter playing out? Is the initial ICIS bearish European view still going to hold for Q1-24? What’s in store for #LNG in Asia? Join us on 22 November! #TTF #ONGT Alex Siow Yuriy Onyshkiv

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After the sky-high prices of 2022, Asian buyers returned to the market in May 2023 as ICIS TTF prices slipped to $10/MMBtu. Spot import into Pacific doubled in May-23 when compared to the previous month. #ttf #lng #gas #icis

After the sky-high prices of 2022, Asian buyers returned to the market in May 2023 as ICIS TTF prices slipped to $10/MMBtu. Spot import into Pacific doubled in May-23 when compared to the previous month. #ttf #lng #gas #icis
Alex Siow (@alexsiowsy) 's Twitter Profile Photo

February 2023: ICIS published the annual LNG outlook, forecasting global supply at 410mT & demand at 395mT. Global LNG ended 2023 at 411mT on supply & 403mT on demand. On an annual basis, ICIS team did pretty well on both front. How will we fare this year? #outlook2024 #icis #lng

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The latest ICIS LNG Supply & Demand Outlook expects 2024 to be under-supplied by 12m tonnes, in an unconstrained environment. As such, for ICIS TTF and EAX spot prices, we expect decent support as prices dip through the quarters with softer demand. analytics.icis.com/wp-content/upl…

Alex Siow (@alexsiowsy) 's Twitter Profile Photo

China #LNG last month: -A prolonged single digit spot price (ICIS EAX) has resulted in 1.2mT of spot purchase -A 50.8PMI says that manufacturing is back, but debt and credit issues prevail -A drought happening in Yunnan, a major hydroelectric exporter in the South.More LNG needed