Saying goodbye to DEVCON on an authentic Thai Tuk-tuk (Robin Hanson and kas.eth)

The Grand Vision of Futarchy -- by Robin Hanson

Prediction markets could decide presidential cabinet appointments in the future. Here’s how: The Treasury Secretary pick is now being decided by President Trump. People are debating the candidates on X and the odds are changing on Polymarket in real time. Awesome. The next

I have often been an econ futurist, estimating the consequences of foreseeable tech. (See Age of Em.) And I've invented a new governance tech: futarchy. But until today, I'd never apply my futurist skills to this particular tech scenario. Until today: overcomingbias.com/p/futarchy-fut…

Public markets are not nearly as efficient or accurate as the could be, even on the short term. (Contrary e.g. Eliezer Yudkowsky ⏹️'s thesis on Inadequate Equilibria). Many people with private accurate beliefs re/ information relevant to public markets do not incorporate these by

Sreeram Kannan This requires credibly neutral decentralized ways of making high quality decisions that would otherwise be made by god kings. IMO info finance (futarchy, distilled human judgement eg. deep funding ...) is a promising path. There are others too. vitalik.eth.limo/general/2024/1…

Re-upping my article from 2021 addressing this, and some possible solutions: vitalik.eth.limo/general/2021/0… Futarchy is one example of category 3 (skin in the game for governance). There's still a bribeable governance layer for the utility function, but at least it's more indirect

It seems my X/twitter account was hacked this morning to post & then delete two tweets pitching a scam crypto coin. I have long had 2-factor auth., & they didn't change my password, but I found some apps I didn't recognize with permissions re my account, since revoked. Beware!

🚨 IMPORTANT SECURITY ALERT 🚨 We are aware that Robin Hanson's X account appears to have been shortly compromised and promoted a "Futarchy" scam token on Solana. No such legitimate token exists. Do not interact with any links or smart contracts being shared. While we've

Richard Ngo The "purist" answer to this question is that those institutions should themselves be futarchies, and so there would be no separate actor whose decision can be "bought", because the decision is determined by conditional market prices for which there is a deep set of participants

Announcing DappCon 2025 Speakers Starting with Robin Hanson 🥁 He is interested in exploring the potential for decentralizing government functions and is intrigued by demarchy. He has also invented a new form of government called Futarchy

When CEOs sell firm shares w/o shareholder approval, prices fall 2%. But prices rise if such approval is required. Prices rise 6% when activists buy, to make proposals. Using futarchy approval instead could be faster, cheaper, and better informed. overcomingbias.com/p/futarchy-for…

To prepare for the task of futarchy guiding future cultural evolution, to prevent civ collapse, let's practice via trying combinatorial futarchy markets that guide corporate culture evolution. overcomingbias.com/p/culture-guid…

Ameen Soleimani GregTheGreek.eth

Should we launch TSLA conditional on Elon remaining as CEO?

Now that futarchy is actually happening, I'm thinking more about how best to handle its many details. Here I think about market maker liquidity provision. overcomingbias.com/p/futarchy-liq…

Join us on a conversation on “Future Society & AI” on Berlin. Robin Hanson is on stage with Joseph Lubin for a chat. Followed by the grand vision futarchy talk by kas.eth.

My talk w/ kas.eth at DappCon25: streameth.org/682f5f23c14984…