The Suez Canal ship transit volume has deteriorated further.

The Citi Economic Surprise Index points to downside risks for Treasury yields.

In the Citi US Economic Surprise Index, hard and soft (survey-based) data surprises have declined, with the soft data index now converging with hard data.

Stagflation fears are back.

Source: BofA Global Research; Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

Commodity funds are rotating from softs to grains. Another round of pump-and-dump?

Commodity funds are rotating from softs to grains. Another round of pump-and-dump?

Stagflation fears are back.

Source: BofA Global Research; Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

The Suez Canal ship transit volume has deteriorated further.

Bloomberg’s aggregate hedge fund index tends to underperform the S&P 500 significantly but is much less volatile. Some in the industry argue that hedge funds tend to outperform on a risk-adjusted basis. In aggregate, that’s simply not true.

The NFIB small business hiring intentions index points to weaker US job growth this quarter.

Source: ING

US households are growing more concerned about the possibility of job loss.

US households are growing more concerned about the possibility of job loss.

The NFIB small business hiring intentions index points to weaker US job growth this quarter.

Source: ING

Surging exuberance toward stocks among US consumers indicates that the market may be vulnerable here.

Surging exuberance toward stocks among US consumers indicates that the market may be vulnerable here.

While market attention has centered on the FOMC maintaining its projection of three rate cuts for this year, the dot plot has been adjusted upward beyond 2024.

While market attention has centered on the FOMC maintaining its projection of three rate cuts for this year, the dot plot has been adjusted upward beyond 2024.

The probability of a Fed rate cut in May tumbled in response to the hot US CPI print.