One assumption is that with global equities down ~20%, a profit recession is already priced in. But in reality, last year’s losses was all about removing the valuation excesses of the prior couple of years. We saw similar 20+ years when the last Growth bubble burst.

The contrast between US sales growth and the rest of the world is stark. Whilst above average sector sales growth in RoW is limited to energy impacted sectors, most US sectors are seeing excessive sales growth. This is incompatible with a FED successfully reigning in inflation

We’ve updated our distribution of US stock valuations chart. Things look pretty pricey to me! insight-public.sgmarkets.com/quant-motion-p…

So quantitative easing buys bonds, that in turn lowers the cost of capital, leading to lots and lots of VC funding. This excess cash that is then deposited by VCs in a bank that then buys bonds?! Am I reading this right? Or have I read too many Michael Lewis books!

⁦⁦John Authers⁩ well that escalated sooner than expected! bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

Which Value Factor should I focus on?

So after a decade or more of near zero cash rates, when they finally put up interest rates to an attractive level, everyone is scared of putting their money on deposit in case their bank goes bang?

Just for a moment there I thought Quant had gone mainstream…

Greg Memedoff US corporates (whole economy) $bn net interest payments have collapsed 25% yoy - normally be rising by a similar amount. That is amazing and boosting profits by a massive 20% relative to normal tightening cycles. Add that to Greedflation and its no wonder the recession is delayed

A different way of viewing equity/bond correlation…

This is pretty scary! bostonfed.org/publications/c…

Japan Value vs AI… okay I was somewhat selective by my start date, but still so are all those magnificent 7 charts with their end 2022 start date! This is relative performance by the way…

So the first major job losses from the unleashing of ChatGPT on the world is at the firm that created it?

RIP to an absolute legend and a good man. simonsfoundation.org/2024/05/10/sim…

To elaborate on my interview last week on Bloomberg TV, as well as my response to Elon Musk, a thread. Restrictive policy rates have succeeded in slowing the rate-sensitive segments of the U.S. economy (including goods inflation), but a >5% Fed Funds rate is not doing much to

This uniform rotation based on size is quite something, and only happening US markets currently…