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China courts frazzled Europe as Western alliance wavers A thread looking at how Beijing swooped in to try to charm Europe in the face of US hostility in Munich scmp.com/news/china/dip…

An op-ed from a Taiwanese opposition paper warns that the U.S. turning Ukraine “from pawn to sacrificial piece” (從棋子變成棄子) has sobering implications for Taiwan - a narrative that could gain traction depending on the nature of a US-Russia deal. udn.com/news/story/733…

Looking forward to moderating a Penn Project on the Future of U.S.-China Relations panel on PRC nat sec, Taiwan, and the SCS this Thursday (2/20) at 6pm eastern featuring Brian Hart, Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然, and Ketian Vivian Zhang where they will brief their excellent papers. Registration details here: upennmeeting-edu.zoom.us/webinar/regist…

Very excited to discuss my working paper on countering China’s “military-civil fusion” strategy and broader U.S.-China national security issues on this panel today. The excellent Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然 and Ketian Vivian Zhang will also be discussing their research, with Joel Wuthnow moderating.

These are great papers by Brian Hart, Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然, & Ketian Vivian Zhang. Very much looking forward to their conversation later today, moderated by Joel Wuthnow. Tune in live on Zoom or later on YouTube at youtube.com/live/B8ElaUKWp…

Had fun discussing US national security, South China Sea, and of course Taiwan last night with Brian Hart Ketian Vivian Zhang and Joel Wuthnow

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But--and that's point no. 2--the Russians will *of course* want to advertise their detente with the US (if that's what's in the making) to appear more expensive to Beijing. They'll pocket U.S. concessions, and use them for leverage with China, but they will not "break their

WATCH: Taiwan’s coast guard boards a China-linked ship [HUNG TAI] after the Taiwan-Penghu No.3 undersea cable was disconnected. The coast guard is conducting a further investigation to see what caused damage to the cable and if the ship is involved. Source: TW Coast Guard

Our expert Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然 says that what happens in Europe raises questions about how the Trump administration "might sideline Taiwan or coerce Taiwan in its attempt to deter war with China." dw.com/en/why-some-in…

What is China’s approach to crisis management, and how has it evolved over the past several decades? We convened leading experts, Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然, Sungmin Cho, and Joel Wuthnow, to assess U.S.-China crisis management prospects:

China’s military exercises were targeted at Lai, but there was also a message for the US. Our expert Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然 says China wants to persuade the Trump admin that Lai is a troublemaker and deter the US from maintaining high levels of support to Taiwan. nytimes.com/2025/04/01/wor…

4/ There is sense of defiance among PRC counterparts. They argue PRC governance system/society is better able to withstand pain than US. Also reminders that PRC has made breakthroughs in the past when cut off from tech leaders, such as its nuclear program breakthrough in 1960s.

Today's edition of Discourse Power has everything I translated and shared about the war, compiled and edited for your convenience. This VERY LONG issue took considerable time and effort to translate, edit, and prepare, some of it while under fire. If you find it valuable, I

Thanks very much to NüVoices 女性之音 nuvoices.bsky.social & Sophia Yan for the chance to chat US-China relations under Trump 2.0

Trump’s decision to attack Iranian nuclear facilities introduces complications for China's ability to fathom how Trump might handle Taiwan. Our expert Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然 says even minor concessions on how Trump talks about Taiwan could be a win for Beijing. nytimes.com/2025/06/26/wor…

Huge....Treasury Secretary Bessent on Bloomberg: H20 licensing part of a "mosaic' deal with China in Geneva and London. Admits that the deal overturns the ban on exports of H20 GPUs to China. Sales to resume soon....

Saturday, Taiwan will hold the largest recall election in its history. 20% of the legislature, all Kuomintang members, could lose their seats. Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然 at Eurasia Group spoke with us about the recall and cross-strait relations. open.substack.com/pub/uscnpm/p/t…

Taiwan’s Pres. Lai was denied permission to visit NY en route to Central America, shortly after the cancellation of a meeting between the US and Taiwan’s defense minister. Our expert Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然 says this will further hurt Lai’s standing at home. ft.com/content/baf4a2…

🚨 NEW Battle Lines: Will China invade Taiwan? Venetia Rainey is joined by Amanda Hsiao 萧嫣然 to discuss how risky invading Taiwan would be for China. Listen now 👇 linktr.ee/BattleLines