"It's so simple. You spend less than you earn. Invest shrewdly, avoid toxic people and toxic activities, and try and keep learning all your life"
--- Charlie Munger
US CPI has moved down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.1% today.
What's driving that decline? Lower rates of inflation in Fuel Oil, Gas Utilities, Gasoline, Used Cars, Medical Care, Apparel, New Cars, Food at Home, Electricity, and Food away from Home.
Shelter and
US financial conditions are the most accommodative they've been since the Fed started hiking rates last year, according to the Bloomberg US Financial Conditions index.
The market is now pricing in a Fed Funds Rate of 3.8% by the end of 2024, expecting significantly more easing than the Fed's projection of a move down to 4.6%.
Time doesn't heal psychological wounds. Perspective does.
Days passed don't guarantee insight gained. Seeing last year's disappointments through an old lens is more upsetting than viewing yesterday's setbacks from a new angle.
Time creates distance. Reflection offers wisdom.
The Fed's assets fell 9.8% in 2023, moving from $8.55 trillion down to $7.71 trillion (-$838 billion). This was the largest calendar year reduction in their balance sheet on record.
In the run-up to the 2008 crisis, owner's equity in real estate as a percentage of total real estate value reached record lows (i.e. it was highly leveraged).
Today, it is around the highest in modern history.
The most controversial term in accounting:
Stock-Based Compensation
How does it work? Why is it controversial?
Here’s a complete overview (in plain English):
The Fed keeps saying it wants to get the inflation rate back to 2%, but why is that the end goal? Why not keep monetary policy tight until the 11% additional inflation we've had since Jan 2020 above the 2% trendline is erased?