Only one trade this week. Just took some off @ 5263. Down to 8% notional exposure from 20%. +210 handles so far. Sometimes boring is good.

It’s “the Fed” not “the FED.”

Hermès outperforming the rest of luxury over the last year, with LVMH and luxury benchmarks trailing behind since mid-Jan especially. The birkin has gone from bag to business model.

Our debut APFX article, “The Turn of the DXY”, has been an incredible call since we posted it on Jan. 28th. The dollar is down nearly 800bps since and the team is doing an excellent job with their other convictions across FX and rate markets.

Gold is claiming new highs, but speculative positioning is well below peaks.

a tale of two tariffs: free for all subscribers, citriniresearch’s first financial history piece in two years citriniresearch.com/p/a-tale-of-tw…

gm

The art of the deal, foiled by the culture of deliberation.

Trump wants lower rates. Powell isn’t budging. So where is the line drawn for Fed independence? New from AP on Fed independence, Trump’s legal options, and the EM-ification of US institutions. (Free for all readers) alphapicks.co.uk/p/drawing-the-…

Gm, say it back (bot-free comment zone today)

The dollar’s collapsing, but the lira is committed to the bit.

If you squint hard enough, this is macro alpha.

An extract from our recent article on Trump vs Powell: