There is still extreme fear in the #BTC market, but the fact that next week: - Luna could buy $1.2B of BTC to establish a BTC-denominated forex fund for its UST stablecoin; & - El Salvador could launch its $1B BTC-backed volcano bond, there is cause for optimism for BTC.

In the past 2 #BTC bull phases, the 14D SMA of the No. of Active Addresses (NAA) took on a 6-wave* move as BTC rode to its respective cycle peaks. NAA is likely onto Wave 4 in this cycle. If history rhymes, BTC's cycle peak is yet to come. * Not Elliott Wave count

#BTC was back to $41.7K at one point & now a tad below $41K! This was helped by a healthy short squeeze where ~$50M of perp. shorts futures got liquidated in 45 min. Hope this move has legs ahead of the FOMC meeting. LG!

#BTC has been on a roaster ride since it surged to $41.7K. So far $71M of perp. futures shorts were liquidated. The funding rates are -ve so the market is net short. Any dovish comments from the Fed could squeeze BTC to $42K. Once that's breached, next level is $45K/$47K. LG!

The Fed hiked rates by 25bp as expected. Dot-plot shows 7 more rate hikes in 2022, but Powell walks back on every FOMC meeting being live for rate hike. Could the Fed raise rates to 1.9% in view of slowing growth despite high inflation? No firm QT timing On balance=Dovish #BTC

#BTC is on the verge of breaking out to the upside as confirmed by technical indicators. It's trading inside an Ascending Parallel Channel w/ resistance at $45K-$46K & support at $35K-$36K. But ST in a🔺pattern. If BTC breaks out of both patterns: T1: $49K-$52K T2: $57K-$59K

#BTC met resistance at $42K, but the upward momentum isn't lost. It could pull back to $40.4K-$41K to find support before resuming up. Once $42K is breached, $46K-$47K is the next resistance level. Interim target of $49K-$59K remains once $46K-$47K resistance is breached.

#BTC breached $42K & turned that into support. Momentum is on the upside as all technical indicators are strong & 21D EMA crossed above 34D EMA. ~$41K is strong support. The next resistance is $45K (200D EMA). Breaching that, $46K-$47K. Interim target of $49K-$59K intact!

#BTC hit $47.5K after breaching its 200 EMA & the top of the parallel channel! Let's see if it'd flip that ($47K) into support. If not, it'd retrace back to $45K (200 EMA). Tech. indicators are bullish & some signal overbought, but mo. is📈. Interim target of $49K-$59K intact!

#BTC hit $48.2K but couldn't hold the top of parallel channel as support. It retested its 200 EMA before rebounding. BTC behaved similarly last July, incl. its tech. indicators. It finally punched through the parallel channel & hit $53K. If history rhymes, $49K-$59K likely!

Unlike the recent highs, LT HODLers aren't selling their #BTC as there's no spike in their Spent Output Age Bands so the corr. shouldn't be deep. As next FOMC mtg is 1 mo away, markets should stabilize after sell-off. BTC should hold its 50 EMA ($43K) or else at $42K & bounce.

In weaponizing the USD, the US is inadvertently dethroning the USD as the world's reserve currency. With less demand of USD & US treasuries, the Fed has to continually "print" money to monetize the debt. This is an ideal situation where #BTC will thrive. $700K/BTC is no dream!

Based on past Coinbase's #BTC withdrawals, BTC is expected to rally >$48K. Whenever such withdrawal >30K, BTC's price would first drop below that when the withdrawal occurred & then rallied above the last high before the withdrawal👇. A 32K BTC withdrawal happened on 4/14/22.🤔

Australia will soon list a spot #BTC ETF, but the US... The US SEC has weakened its arguments against spot BTC ETFs for having approved a BTC Futures ETF under the 30 Act. Its regulated markets of significant size argument crumbles w/ this approval. US spot BTC ETFs are coming.