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A review of how trade affects welfare in an economy with domestic distortions, from David Atkin and Dave Donaldson nber.org/papers/w29314

The Illusory Truth Effect is a key to understanding the impact of social media. If you see something repeated enough times, it seems true. A new paper shows it works on 85% of people. Other work shows that this happens even if the idea isn't plausible & even if you know better!

Supply constraints are really starting to abate. The US stood out like a sore thumb for much of 2021, with delivery times almost as stretched (red) as Japan after Fukushima in 2011 (orange). We've now been normalizing for two successive months. Same is true for Germany (blue)...

Excess capital accumulation from protracted booms may be a source of financial crises. Deviations from strict inflation targeting may help prevent those crises and raise welfare, from Frederic Boissay, Fabrice Collard, Jordi Galí, and Cristina Manea nber.org/papers/w29602

Since the pandemic began, supply chain disruptions have become a major challenge for the global economy. This post proposes a new gauge that provides a comprehensive summary of potential disruptions affecting global supply chains. nyfed.org/332cXU1

German data from 1972–2012 indicate that trade exposure increases income risk, an effect that is greatest for workers with the highest levels of industry-specific human capital, from Liuchun Deng, Pravin Krishna, Mine Zeynep Senses, and Jens Stegmaier nber.org/papers/w29612

Is the recent rise in international shipping costs due to higher demand for goods during COVID-19, or are other disruptions also at play? ow.ly/vq1k50Hmq6Q

A shift in U.S. consumption patterns coupled with spikes in personal disposable income help explain inflation’s recent rise. What’s the outlook? ow.ly/x4jJ50II1mu

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11… Our recent work just published. Thank you to Harold James, John Landon-Lane, David Tuckett and Rickard Nyman. Open Access. #Economics #Sentiment Julis-Rabinowitz Center for Public Policy &Finance The University of Buckingham

Subjects who observe a public stream of information regarding a state they have to repeatedly guess do better when they can observe others’ guesses, from Marina Agranov, Gabriel Lopez-Moctezuma, Philipp Strack, and Omer Tamuz nber.org/papers/w29962

We have this new set of results. The role of sentiment in the US economy: 1920 to 1934 onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eh…

Narratives, not probabilities, are the language of thought. Significant implications for economics? Join the conversation at Behavioral and Brain Sciences bit.ly/3M3az0i

This piece from the SF Fed traces supply-driven and demand-driven inflation over the pandemic. It's especially interesting to see how the drivers have changed over time. frbsf.org/economic-resea…

Latest from #thelongrun: 'The transmission and impact of sentiment shocks' by Ali Kabiri & Harold James ali kabiri David Tuckett The University of Buckingham The FMG Princeton History Rutgers University UCL ehs.org.uk/the-transmissi…

Bank default risk propagation along supply chains: Evidence from the U... sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

AddThis | Home authors.elsevier.com/a/1gJyo3mpIn-H…

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