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Alex Wickham

@alexwickham

Reporter at Bloomberg [email protected]

calendar_today05-11-2011 19:32:05

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NEW: Bloomberg UK Saturday read

— Sunak is facing calls from some allies to name the election date to head off a leadership challenge after May 2

— Oct/Nov/Dec still the aim. Dec 12 is one date that’s been discussed

— but June/July in play as a back-up

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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— the thinking is that by naming a date Sunak will put Britain into full-on election mode and make any effort to remove him look chaotic and divisive

— George Osborne first had the idea on his podcast

— it’s being pushed by some aides, others reluctant

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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— Tory rebels plan to move against Sunak after May 2

— they claim 25 letters are in and that another 10 are ready to go straight after locals

— so they think they need ~15 more MPs to hit 53

— PM naming a date could get ahead of it and put off letters

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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— Sunak’s preference has always been to go long, people familiar with his thinking say

— aides have even discussed Dec 12, five years on from the last election

— more time for economy to recover, would give Sunak 2 years in office unlike an Oct vote

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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— but there’s still talk of a June/July election

— Sunak allies ruled that out only a few weeks ago, yet now they say it’s not impossible

— some aides who fear the PM can’t last til autumn think an ECHR snap election might be a better bet

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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— the problem with a summer election is it will look like it’s been forced on Sunak out of weakness, because it’s known that his preference is to go later

— Labour would be able to paint him as weak and having to go early because he couldn’t go on

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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— there’s also a key timing issue

— if Sunak looks like he’s going to face letters after May 2, then calls a snap election out of desperation, that could tip Tory MPs over the edge into removing him

— very few Tory MPs appear to want a summer election

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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— aides say Sunak genuinely hasn’t decided the election date yet, and wouldn’t want to give up a competitive advantage by naming the date before he has to

— No10 is doing a series of economic events next week with inflation set to fall to 3% on Wednesday

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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— the biggest rumour in Westminster at the moment is that Sunak has been in talks about a post-election job

— two sources say he wants to run an AI project backed by Blackstone’s Steve Schwarzman

— No10 and Blackstone deny talks

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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